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How much can US coal production increase?

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How much can US coal production increase?
Posted by blue streak 1 on Tuesday, July 12, 2022 1:20 AM

Coal prices on US spot market are soaring from European demand.  That demand brings up the question of how much additional coal production can increase especially short term.  I would expect that producers would be reluctant to open more mines due to the possiility that demand could weakken quickly if the Ukraine situation changes?  

However what is the ability of increasing production from existing USA mining efforts?  Maybe som persons will kow one or more answers to the following. 

1.  The appalachian reagion especially WVa.

2  Illinoins and Indianna basin

3.  Powder Rver production.  Although long way from Atlantic portss.  Did I read that several mines there were to shut down and could they quickly re start or just not shut down?

4.  Lesser coal fields such as in the Colorado area?

5.  Then there is the problem of PSR with the inability of class 1s to keep employees.  Also has CSX and NS cut some of their track capacities? 

6.  Can New Orleans increase barge to ship handling?

7.  How much excess capacity is there now for the east coast coal handling faciities?  BALT?

Hereis a link.

Coal prices soar to record highs on strong demand from a Europe in crisis (msn.com)   

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, July 12, 2022 7:35 AM

blue streak 1
Coal prices on US spot market are soaring from European demand.  That demand brings up the question of how much additional coal production can increase especially short term.  I would expect that producers would be reluctant to open more mines due to the possiility that demand could weakken quickly if the Ukraine situation changes?  

However what is the ability of increasing production from existing USA mining efforts?  Maybe som persons will kow one or more answers to the following. 

1.  The appalachian reagion especially WVa.

2  Illinoins and Indianna basin

3.  Powder Rver production.  Although long way from Atlantic portss.  Did I read that several mines there were to shut down and could they quickly re start or just not shut down?

4.  Lesser coal fields such as in the Colorado area?

5.  Then there is the problem of PSR with the inability of class 1s to keep employees.  Also has CSX and NS cut some of their track capacities? 

6.  Can New Orleans increase barge to ship handling?

7.  How much excess capacity is there now for the east coast coal handling faciities?  BALT?

Hereis a link.

Coal prices soar to record highs on strong demand from a Europe in crisis (msn.com)   

I don't have any handle on CSX coal capacity in the 21st Century.  In the late 70's & early 80's CSX had the fluid capacity at Curtis Bay Coal Pier to dump in the neighborhood of 800 cars per 24 hour day into vessels at the pier.  Needless to say dumping time was lost in the changeover between vessels.  In the same period of time Newport News Coal Pier was dumping in the neighborhood of 1000 cars per 24 hour period.

Subsequent to that period of time, at Baltimore, Island Creek Coal built a pier operation, adjacent to CBCP, known as Bayside that used a different routine in loading vessels - a routine that did not have rail cars dumping directly into vessels, but dumping to ground storage and the ground storage being loaded to vessels.  At some point in time CSX bought the facility from Island Creek and has been operating it.  I don't know if CSX is operating both facilities or not.

At Newport News Dominion Coal Associates built as similar ground storage type operation in the same time frame.  I don't know how the former C&O coal pier and the Dominion operation work with each other.

Capacity in the Export Coal business relates to how much coal can be loaded on vessels in how little time.  As information, vessels would load 50-60 thousand tons at Curtis Bay (39 foot maximum allowed draft - in the 1970-80's time frame - deeper today) and then sail down the Chesapeake Bay to Newport News and top off with another 100K tons or more (NN maximum draft was 55 feet, I think) for their trip across the ocean.

The information I gleaned about the coal pier operations came from working in the Terminal Services Centers that prepared the 'Cargo Statements' (ie. Freight Bill) that was issued to the beneficial owner of the coal being shipped.  The statements included Origin mine, weight of contents, transshipper identity and other information that was pertinent to each shipment.

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Posted by Overmod on Tuesday, July 12, 2022 8:37 AM

I have a real clear picture that the current crop of PSR railroads will spend the money to ramp coal transportation back up.  I think you're correct that the end of the war in Ukraine promptly abolishes the European demand.  And I expect governments will continue to demonize the fuel for nearly all purposes going forward.

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Posted by SD70Dude on Tuesday, July 12, 2022 8:48 AM

World coal prices had skyrocketed well before the war in Ukraine started, I suspect that China's decision to stop buying Australian coal had been largely responsible for this.  

Two of Alberta's export mines (Coal Valley and Grande Cache) have reopened in the past 9 months after being shut down for long periods.  

Greetings from Alberta

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Posted by greyhounds on Thursday, July 14, 2022 3:25 PM

If you've got any bit of an open mind, you might want to read this book about the use of fossil fuels such as coal.  Their use really has helped humans and their banishment will hurt us.  There is a cost to their use, but there are also great benefits.

https://www.amazon.com/Fossil-Future-Flourishing-Requires-Gas-Not-ebook/dp/B098M3Y7VC/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3992HW0JD39I7&keywords=fossil+future+alex+epstein&qid=1657829966&s=books&sprefix=%2Cstripbooks%2C193&sr=1-1

 

"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by Overmod on Friday, July 15, 2022 8:51 AM

One of the 'things' about coal is that, although many of the 'clean coal' initiatives are very real and effective, the American desire to profit from proprietary 'recipes', dog-in-the-manger license or patent-pooling, and revenue prioritized over 'safety' left most of the world convinced the whole approach was more or less a scam.

The system of SRC that was used in the coal-burning Eldorados was worked out in all the detail needed to scale for production; back in the day the 'break-even' cost of diesel was about $2.30 to make the coal fuel "less expensive" to provide (in remanufacturable but not 'user-refilled-like-toner' cartridges).  Zero-carbon or even zero-net-carbon alternative-fuel initiatives, though, run with garlic and crosses held high from any such use of high-carbon fossil sources...

The great current initiative is blue-hydrogen-with-sequestration.  The actual cost of sequestration has gone down from the 23% involved in pulverized-coal combustion, as the phase separation of CO2 from H2 occurs at little more than process pressure.  Presumably reasonable sequestration and FGR continue to be attractive methods of practical carbon-release minimization... for those who can't get enough rubles for their 'energy fix', or pay the price for the weasels' addiction.

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Posted by NittanyLion on Friday, July 15, 2022 10:01 AM

greyhounds
Their use really has helped humans and their banishment will hurt us. 

So did the horse, but I drove a car to the store this morning.

A time will eventually come when it isn't the carbon that people worry about, but finally realize that their anti-nuclear nonsense was a mistake because coal is definitely injecting vastly more radiological material on purpose into the atmosphere than nuclear could potentially inject by accident.

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Posted by greyhounds on Friday, July 15, 2022 12:15 PM

NittanyLion
So did the horse, but I drove a car to the store this morning. A time will eventually come when it isn't the carbon that people worry about, but finally realize that their anti-nuclear nonsense was a mistake because coal is definitely injecting vastly more radiological material on purpose into the atmosphere than nuclear could potentially inject by accident.

Well, the book’s author “Agrees with Me” that nuclear is the way to go.  But they’ve (Bad Government, Bad) have all but regulated it out of existence. 
 
So, meanwhile, I want:  1) The lights to come on, 2) My house to be warm in the winter, 3) My house to be cool in the summer, 4) My car to have fuel so I can go get groceries, 5) The medical services I need to have power to operate, etc., etc., etc.
 
The only way to do all that reliably now is by using fossil fuels.  There is a cost to using fossil fuels.  But there are also benefits.  I need the benefits.  And so do the other eight billion people on this planet.
 
As to horses.  We had horses “Out Back.”  We had some land in the small town I grew up in.  It was fenced.  We had the land, other people had horses.  My father made deals and those other folks kept their horses “Out Back.”
 
If you think about it, a horse takes energy from the sun in the forms of grass, hay, corn, whatever, and stores it for human use when needed.  Now, people are trying to replicate a horse by creating a battery that will do the same thing.  Good luck playing God.
 
We're not going back to horses.
"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by wjstix on Monday, July 18, 2022 3:20 PM

Nuclear power could / should be a very usefull power source as we transition from fossil fuels (which are finite, and which add to global climate change) to solar (which is infinite and non-polluting). It's too bad we are so far behind in solar technology, largely because of the political influence the fossil fuel industry has. Anybody remember that in the 1970s you could get a federal tax credit for adding solar panels to your house, and almost all new houses built then had them. That ended when Reagan became president.

As far as export coal increasing, I suppose it depends on what kind of coal they want. In the US, many eastern coal-burning power plants use Powder River coal, because it burns cleaner than Appalachian coal, so helps the power plants meet the emission standards. So if Europe can use the Appalachian coal, it might be something we could send them. Not sure if there's enough capacity in Powder River Basin to meet our needs and to export?

Stix
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Posted by tree68 on Monday, July 18, 2022 3:30 PM

The "green" movement has fossil fuels in its sights - coal, oil, even natural gas.

We're already losing tillable land in this area to solar farms, and there are hundreds of wind turbines.

People have been made afraid of nuclear power, so it's not likely you'll see any more of them built.

There are even people opposed to hydropower.

Yet, at the same time, NYS wants all new construction to use electricity.  

Curiously, no one seems to know where all this electricity will magically come from.

The same goes for EV's.  

At a recent unveiling of the most current edition of GM's "Volt," a GM executive was apparently unaware that the power being used to charge the car's battery was coming from a coal fired power plant...

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, July 18, 2022 5:12 PM

wjstix
...

As far as export coal increasing, I suppose it depends on what kind of coal they want. In the US, many eastern coal-burning power plants use Powder River coal, because it burns cleaner than Appalachian coal, so helps the power plants meet the emission standards. So if Europe can use the Appalachian coal, it might be something we could send them. Not sure if there's enough capacity in Powder River Basin to meet our needs and to export?

While all coal may be black.  Not all coal is the same.  Coal has any number of different metallurgical properties - properties that can affect how an where a particular mine's coal may be used.  In the heyday of the B&O's Curtis Bay Coal Pier its 'speciality' was blending the coal being laded into vessels.  Each transhipper (agent for loading the vessels) had a number of different 'grades' from the various mines they were associated with - each different grade had its own metallurgical signature.  The receiver of the vessels contents would want a specific mix of these different metalurgies to end up with a overall unique signature for their specific uses (boilers, cokeing etc.)

As a example Transshipper A had grades 'Apple, Banana, Cherry and a number of other 'fruit' names to their grades.  A 'dumping rotation' would be designed for what the final grade going into the hold would be ie. 5-Apple, 2-Banana, 1-Cherry, 7-Orange and repeat the sequence.  Ten tracks fed the coal dumper, each track would be supplied with a separte grade of coal.  The Barney Operators, at the direction of the Dumper Foreman were instructed what cars to shove to the dumper and in what order.

Upon arrival in Curtis Bay, Coal Surveyors would sample the coal from the arriving trains to ascertain that the proper coal grade was in the train.

To my knowledge, I don't believe CSX is doing coal blending anymore.

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Posted by Erik_Mag on Tuesday, July 19, 2022 12:46 AM

tree68

We're already losing tillable land in this area to solar farms,

That's why I think the emphasis should be on rooftop installations as opposed to "solar farms".

A big mistake with push for EV's was not pushing for chargings stations where cars would be parked during late morning and early afternoon, thus making use of the peak of the solar power production. With "Vehicle to grid" technology, the batteries on the EV's could be utilized to supply power in the evening. Note that the peak demand time for California (likely similar in most other states) is approximately 7PM, just as solar generation is ending for the day.

Getting back on the thread's topic, unless there is a Great Depression like downturn worldwide, the coal boom should last at least another five years.

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Posted by Ed Kyle on Tuesday, July 19, 2022 12:01 PM

Re:  "That's why I think the emphasis should be on rooftop installations as opposed to "solar farms"."

Not on my roof.  I've seen too many solar panel system fires.

 - Ed Kyle

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Posted by Gramp on Tuesday, July 19, 2022 12:39 PM

tree68

The "green" movement has fossil fuels in its sights - coal, oil, even natural gas.

We're already losing tillable land in this area to solar farms, and there are hundreds of wind turbines.

People have been made afraid of nuclear power, so it's not likely you'll see any more of them built.

There are even people opposed to hydropower.

Yet, at the same time, NYS wants all new construction to use electricity.  

Curiously, no one seems to know where all this electricity will magically come from.

The same goes for EV's.  

At a recent unveiling of the most current edition of GM's "Volt," a GM executive was apparently unaware that the power being used to charge the car's battery was coming from a coal fired power plant...

 

I liken this to the changeover from incandescent lightbulbs but now on a gigantic scale. Know-it-alls banned incandescents, pushed compact fluorescents. Up until that point, most fluorescents were used commercially, sold and serviced by firms that handled disposal properly. With compacts, all bets were off. Lots of mercury to the landfills, dumps, and wherever. Later, LEDs were perfected, a much better technology.  Now the farm is being bet on EVs and such, banning fossil fuels. Same idiocy. People who want to rule the world.
At least UP is smart enough to test biofuel in four locomotives. 

 

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Posted by NittanyLion on Tuesday, July 19, 2022 12:56 PM

wjstix
solar (which is infinite and non-polluting)

But not infinitely collectable or infinitely applicable.

A 100 percent efficient solar array would have to be half the size of Pennsylvania just to meet current national demand. Even at that level of efficiency, the combination of solar irradiance and geometry puts you at a hard limit of 12 kWh/m2 in the best of locations (granted, these are napkin calculations. The maximum solar irradiance is in the area of 1000 watts per meter and so on). Nuclear is vastly more compact to put out vastly more power, without any hard physical caps on the maximum output for a given facility.  You could readily put a 32 GWh four reactor nuclear power plant on the same area that would struggle to reach 3 GWh.

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Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, July 19, 2022 3:47 PM

Erik_Mag
A big mistake with push for EV's was not pushing for chargings stations where cars would be parked during late morning and early afternoon,

One of our local amateur radio repeaters is completely off the grid.  Power comes from several solar panels and a small wind turbine, all feeding a battery bank.  Usually that's enough.  Except in the dead of winter, when the days are short and the wind oftimes does not blow.  So the owner has to go to the site and run a generator for several hours to replenish the batteries.

Otherwise, you've got a good point.  The same is true for "destinations."  You may have a great restaurant, but if you're limited to people who can make it there and back on a charge, well...

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, July 19, 2022 5:57 PM

Erik_Mag

 

 
tree68

We're already losing tillable land in this area to solar farms,

 

 

That's why I think the emphasis should be on rooftop installations as opposed to "solar farms".

 

There's a wide swath of the western US that is not tillable and would be excellent locations for solar farms. 

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

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Posted by Electroliner 1935 on Tuesday, July 19, 2022 11:40 PM

tree68
One of our local amateur radio repeaters is completely off the grid.  Power comes from several solar panels and a small wind turbine, all feeding a battery bank.  Usually that's enough.  Except in the dead of winter, when the days are short and the wind oftimes does not blow.  So the owner has to go to the site and run a generator for several hours to replenish the batteries.

Does snow pile up on the solar panels? 

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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 11:24 AM

Ed Kyle

Re:  "That's why I think the emphasis should be on rooftop installations as opposed to "solar farms"."

Not on my roof.  I've seen too many solar panel system fires.

 - Ed Kyle

 

Not on my roof either.  If I had solar panels, they would be on a special timber post and beam frame on a ground pier foundation.  I want the roof to concentrate on the challenge of just being a roof; and not have to accommodate the wear and tear of panel installation and maintenance plus having mechanical attachments piecing the roofing with the need for some kind of reliable sealing that will need routine maintenance. 
 
In snow country, will the panels not be affected by a foot of snow on them?  I think they will be affected in terms of diminishing the electric production.  In “lake effect” snow country, many people must routinely shovel their roofs just to limit the snow load.  How is that going to work with a roof covered by solar panels? 
 
The accompanying high winds drives snow into every nook and cranny.  It can completely fill the space under a parked vehicle, for example.  So with panels mounted a couple feet above a roof, snow will fill and pack that space, and pile more on top.  Heat loss through the roof will cause continuous slow melting of the snow pack on the roof, so the whole panel installation will be encapsulated in compacted snow.  If you were going to remove snow from roofs with panels, how would you do it? 
 
The only good reason to have panels on the roof is if there is no other room for them. 
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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 11:41 AM

Wrong question!  The real question is how much can coal demand increase!  If demand is there, production will increase to fulfill the demand.

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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 12:22 PM

BaltACD

Wrong question!  The real question is how much can coal demand increase!  If demand is there, production will increase to fulfill the demand.

 

The real question is whether the regulatory community will allow coal to be mined and burned. 
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Posted by diningcar on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 12:41 PM

Let's not lose sight of the fact that coal is being exported to those locations which have not yet been adjusted to other fuels. 

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Posted by tree68 on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 1:17 PM

Euclid
The real question is whether the regulatory community will allow coal to be mined and burned.

The regulators are only reacting to the environmentalists...

When they discover that there's not enough electricity to charge their EV's, they'll "warm up" to coal...

LarryWhistling
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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 3:10 PM

tree68

 

 
Euclid
The real question is whether the regulatory community will allow coal to be mined and burned.

 

The regulators are only reacting to the environmentalists...

I don't think there is much of a distinction.  Both are part of something larger.  And they do work together as you suggest.  

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 4:49 PM

Euclid
tree68 
Euclid
The real question is whether the regulatory community will allow coal to be mined and burned. 

The regulators are only reacting to the environmentalists... 

I don't think there is much of a distinction.  Both are part of something larger.  And they do work together as you suggest.  

CSX and NS and their predecessors have been shipping West Virginia overseas for almost two hundred years and despite their best efforts the state still exists.

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Posted by kgbw49 on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 11:06 PM

tree68

 

 
Euclid
The real question is whether the regulatory community will allow coal to be mined and burned.

 

The regulators are only reacting to the environmentalists...

When they discover that there's not enough electricity to charge their EV's, they'll "warm up" to coal...

 

 

Wait. What? Don't those thingys that are in all the walls make the electricity? I just, like, plug whatever, like my TV, like, in to them and then it works. Why would coal have anything to do with electricity?

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 11:47 PM

kgbw49
 
tree68 
Euclid
The real question is whether the regulatory community will allow coal to be mined and burned. 

The regulators are only reacting to the environmentalists...

When they discover that there's not enough electricity to charge their EV's, they'll "warm up" to coal... 

Wait. What? Don't those thingys that are in all the walls make the electricity? I just, like, plug whatever, like my TV, like, in to them and then it works. Why would coal have anything to do with electricity?

Where is Ready Kilowatt?

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Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Thursday, July 21, 2022 10:02 AM

BaltACD
 
Euclid
tree68 
Euclid
The real question is whether the regulatory community will allow coal to be mined and burned. 

The regulators are only reacting to the environmentalists... 

I don't think there is much of a distinction.  Both are part of something larger.  And they do work together as you suggest.  

 

CSX and NS and their predecessors have been shipping West Virginia overseas for almost two hundred years and despite their best efforts the state still exists.

 
I've always believed that when the last ton of coal is removed from West Virginia, the entire state will drop about five to ten feet.
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Posted by BLS53 on Saturday, July 23, 2022 7:36 PM

Seeing the number of scheduled power plant closures in the coming years, in southern Illinois and plants further south belonging to the TVA, I expect the now busy BNSF Beardstown Sub to be a hiking trail by 2050.

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