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Puplation density to support Commuter rail

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In my opinion .... Alvin Toffler coined the term "demassification" (in "Future Shock"?) to capture a fundamental strategic reality of U.S. economic evolution. In this view, Henry Ford's River Rouge complex might be seen as the apex of the classical industrial center of mass production, giving way to geographically dispersed plants linked by "just-in-time" supply chains, all feeding an economy of rapidly changing and individualized styles and preferences. (Toyota, for example.) A comparable picture of metropolitan populations can be drawn. Compare New York and the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex, for example. The former with high population density, for sure, but static to declining population. And with strong centrifugal forces (tragically amplified by 9/11) at work, with major employment centers moving to New Jersey ... and Texas ... and India. The information technology revolution is rendering New York a life-style choice, not an inherently strong economic center. The commuter rail network in New York is a very valuable, sunk capital investment, built for a different era. Contrast New York with Dallas-Ft. Worth. Stereo-typically Western resource and trade-based economy through the 1960's, powerfully transformed into a national corporate center by DFW Airport in the 1970's. Real-estate rich, low population density, flexible and well-educated work force ... powerfully shaped by the Western ethos of individuality and personal mobility. But still driven in some ways to emulate New York, central city bank and energy towers sprang up in the 70's and early 80's, only to be emptied (figuratively) by the oil, real estate, and banking busts of the mid-80's. But there never had been Brooklyn- or Bronx- or Yonkers-type populations to support commuter rail. Instead, I-35, Central Expressway and Dallas North Tollway served adequately. The freeway network was developed consistently from the 1950's: First, I-35E, I 35W, the Dallas-Ft. Worth Turpike (now I-30) and the LBJ Freeway. Then the network of highways to serve DFW Airport actually began to weave the Metroplex together. It became quite feasible for Arlington residents to work in Las Colinas (Irving), the emerging corporate and technical center. Then came the remarkable telecom/information technolgy transformation of the 1990's, centered on the "Telecom Corridor" of North Central Expressway and the extended North Dallas Tollway. The Grand Prairie secretary who lost her job in the downtown Dallas bank found her new one at Nortel in Plano. Didn't have to move; didn't have to try to fit together three bus routes; didn't have to wait for population density to develop in support of a rail line. Sure, she has to spend more time behind the wheel, but Central has been widened. If it's backed up, she takes the Tollway instead, using the TollTag to avoid slowing at the toll plazas. Her boss just bought a Lexus with radar-controlled cruise control and lane monitor ... she figures she'll have a Camry with those and more before she retires. Of course, she just got laid off at Nortel ... but Arlington is booming .. looks like the Cowboys will build their new stadium there. I-20, here I come! But the Texans still have some New York commuter rail envy. DART was built; the Trinity Railway Express runs every day between Fort Worth and Dallas (Shucks, what's $250,000,000 to look up-to-date! Fifty buses on I-30 to do the same job would have been so passe!); and some politicians are drumming up a half-cent sales tax boost for ... you guessed it ... a Metroplex-wide commuter rail system on old railroad rights of way.. It may well get done, because appearances are important, and the cost is relatively small. In the meantime, back in the real world ... Toll roads and toll lanes are sprouting. Drive the President George Bu***urnpike from Plano to Irving for a spectacular view of the rapidly emerging urban landscape of the 21st century. You aren't in Hackensack anymore, Dorothy! Smart-highway technology is blooming at your local auto dealer; and the CEO of the next corporate relocator can assure his directors that the cleaning ladies for the new headquarters campus will ride to work on gleaming bi-levels and buses, being dropped off right next to the 3,000 car parking building. In my opinion ... commuter rail was for a different era with different needs. Yes, New York envy and nostalgia and political interest groups will still be served, but in the real world, Atlanta and Denver and the Twin Cities and Houston and Charlotte and San Diego and Salt Lake and DFW ... will flourish in a still demassifying America ... their growth only modestly slowed by the drag of a half-cent sales tax for keeping up appearances.
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