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CN is winning the bidding war. What happens to CP after CN acquired KCS?

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Posted by CMStPnP on Wednesday, May 26, 2021 10:31 AM

kgbw49
By comparison Berkshire Hathaway "made it's money back" after about 9 years from the date of the purchase of BNSF.

I got their class B stock, UP and now CP.    I suspect if they cannot get line concessions CP is going to work out some deal with UP.    Not a merger,  but something similar to what  NS worked out with KCS on the Meridian to Dallas line.   Hence I am waiting for the other shoe to drop on this.    NYSE has very positively responded to the CP negotiating position but I am not sure what NYSE is expecting as a final outcome.

CP is more clever than most here give it credit for.   I was extremely impressed with it's efficiency and signal improvements with the former Milwaukee Road as well as the diligence on how it handles Amtrak trains with on time schedules.    To me that excudes high competence.   I still do not know how Soo Line won the bidding war for Milwaukee with the lower offer but somehow it did and so there is precedence here as well.

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Posted by Overmod on Thursday, May 27, 2021 8:10 AM

Not following this thread carefully, so I apologize if this is a duplicate post, but here is the 'official' CN account of the May 21st agreement.

https://www.connectedcontinent.com/assets/uploads/pdf/Superior-Proposal-to-Combine-With-Kansas-City-Southern.pdf

 

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Posted by DAVID REESE on Tuesday, June 1, 2021 4:33 AM

The KCS does not have access to any industry in Houston only trackage rights between Beaumont through Houston to a connection with the line they purchased between Victoria and Rosenberg.  At least that is my understanding.  

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Posted by CMStPnP on Tuesday, June 1, 2021 10:37 AM

DAVID REESE
The KCS does not have access to any industry in Houston only trackage rights between Beaumont through Houston to a connection with the line they purchased between Victoria and Rosenberg.  At least that is my understanding.  

True but they do have refinery access in Beaumont,TX, Lake Charles, LA, and Port Arthur, TX.    If your speaking to refinery access and CP Oil train contracts.    I am not sure about what the pipeline access is into Houston but they might not need direct rail access to Houston refineries, they might just need to get close.

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Posted by OldcastleRR on Tuesday, June 1, 2021 1:02 PM

No, I believe both were at one time but not for many decades.

 

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Posted by wasd on Wednesday, June 2, 2021 11:09 AM

https://www.railwayage.com/freight/class-i/cn-kcs-1400-supporters-and-counting/

CN has a lot of support for their merger, much more than CP. I think the CN merger is a shoo-in. I would be surprised if it wasn't approved.

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Posted by Ulrich on Wednesday, June 2, 2021 8:39 PM

wasd

https://www.railwayage.com/freight/class-i/cn-kcs-1400-supporters-and-counting/

CN has a lot of support for their merger, much more than CP. I think the CN merger is a shoo-in. I would be surprised if it wasn't approved.

 

 

I don't know about that. The STB chairman is not keen on any mergers..and isn't CN suing the STB on another matter? Doesn't sound too promising to me. 

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Posted by CMStPnP on Thursday, June 3, 2021 6:46 AM

wasd
CN has a lot of support for their merger, much more than CP. I think the CN merger is a shoo-in. I would be surprised if it wasn't approved.

Well first the letters of support are just for a larger merged railroad they are not for a specific preference of CN vs CP.     Second the letters of support mean nothing to government regulators.   They have to decide which merger is better for competition and the country as a whole as it relates to interstate commerce.

CP is correct in it's position that between CP and CN, CP is the better choice as it harms competition less than the CN merger does.   How the government will rule is still up in the air and it could go either way but I trust government enough to ignore the PR campaign which is intended to pressure the decision in CN's favor.

Railway Age tends to be more of a cheer leader than objective reporting source with railway mergers or for that matter most issues railway related.    They rarely take critical positions on any railroad unless it is a non-private entity like Amtrak or a public Transit organization.

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Posted by richard4472 on Monday, June 7, 2021 12:11 PM

NO, both CP and CN are private companies. CN was a Crown corporation up to 1995 or so.  Both are transcontienatl railroads in Canada.   CP would be attractive to UP or BNSF a sit would provide  rail links  to an Atlantic port, that is Saint John New Brunswick

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Posted by samfp1943 on Wednesday, June 9, 2021 1:56 PM

[quote user="richard4472"]

NO, both CP and CN are private companies. CN was a Crown corporation up to 1995 or so.  Both are transcontienatl railroads in Canada.   CP would be attractive to UP or BNSF a sit would provide  rail links  to an Atlantic port, that is Saint John New Brunswick

[/quote]

 

Not really anexpert r really knowledgible on this merger , BUT a coupe of thongs seenm to spring to the forefront in my mind: Neither UPRR or BNSF  hAVE HAD A LOT TO SAY IN THIS ONE.  They seem tio currently be treating it as a fight between a couple of neighborhood high schoolers, IMHO. 

Even NS and CSX seem to be sitting back, like buzzards circling a wounded road kill . Every oner waiting for the US Government to step-in, like the piccadores in a ,bull fight, and finish off,either one of the 'combatants' >(?). 

IMHO, THAT, is really when, the Buzzards will come in to pick their meal. In the meanwhle, specuation, is the hor d' oeuvre for bystanders.  Smile, Wink & Grin

 

 


 

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Posted by beaulieu on Wednesday, June 9, 2021 2:18 PM

The Big 4 US Class 1 railroads haven't really commented on either the CP or CN merger proposal because neither railway has filed their actual merger proposal yet. Both gave preliminary notice to the STB, got permission to look at KCS actual financial information under protective conditions, and requested permission to ultilize a Voting Trust prior to actual permission to acquire KCS. Each of the US Class 1 railroads sent notice to the STB that they do intend to comment when the actual request for permission to merge/acquire is filed. CP has said that they would file their request for permission to acquire KCS in late June of this year. CN having started later has announced that they would file their request sometime in August of this year.

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Posted by ccltrains on Monday, June 21, 2021 12:37 PM

Several years ago KCS disposed of their investment company.  Do not remember the name of the investment company but KCS with the investment company's stock was in the $150 range.  After the disposal of the investment company the KCS stock which only covered the railroad was $5.00 per share and did not pay a dividend. Being retired I am looking for income and passed on buying KCS. Hindsite always is 20/20 and now I am kicking myself for not buying a couple hundred shares when it was $5.00. 

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Posted by Ulrich on Tuesday, June 22, 2021 3:19 PM

ccltrains

Several years ago KCS disposed of their investment company.  Do not remember the name of the investment company but KCS with the investment company's stock was in the $150 range.  After the disposal of the investment company the KCS stock which only covered the railroad was $5.00 per share and did not pay a dividend. Being retired I am looking for income and passed on buying KCS. Hindsite always is 20/20 and now I am kicking myself for not buying a couple hundred shares when it was $5.00. 

 

 

Who knows, fortunes change, maybe in a year or two you'll be thankful that you passed on KCS. 

 

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Posted by Shrike Arghast on Thursday, June 24, 2021 7:50 AM

CMStPnP

 

 
wasd
CN has a lot of support for their merger, much more than CP. I think the CN merger is a shoo-in. I would be surprised if it wasn't approved.

 

Well first the letters of support are just for a larger merged railroad they are not for a specific preference of CN vs CP.     Second the letters of support mean nothing to government regulators.   They have to decide which merger is better for competition and the country as a whole as it relates to interstate commerce.

CP is correct in it's position that between CP and CN, CP is the better choice as it harms competition less than the CN merger does.   How the government will rule is still up in the air and it could go either way but I trust government enough to ignore the PR campaign which is intended to pressure the decision in CN's favor.

Railway Age tends to be more of a cheer leader than objective reporting source with railway mergers or for that matter most issues railway related.    They rarely take critical positions on any railroad unless it is a non-private entity like Amtrak or a public Transit organization.

 

 

Totally agree with this - CP was the better overall fit. What makes the CP-KCS merger most attractive is that it was possible that it could have happened without imploding the NA rail market into the 'final stage of consolidations' (that Trains has been chortling about as being inevitable for the past 2 decades). CN-KCS will almost undoubtebly do just that. And I don't know that the STB wants that to happen.

If I had to give the CN-KCS odds of actually happening, I'd wager them at sub-fifty percent. The chain of events that they would certainly trigger are probably undesirable amidst a recovering global economy - the last thing the STB wants to see are massive line abandonments when jobs are scarce enough in the industry as-is.

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Posted by wasd on Thursday, July 1, 2021 8:32 AM
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Posted by Los Angeles Rams Guy on Thursday, July 1, 2021 7:31 PM

Saw that article.  Total garbage. 

"Beating 'SC is not a matter of life or death. It's more important than that." Former UCLA Head Football Coach Red Sanders

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