We finally have some clarification on the mysterious investment Union Pacific and CN made into TuSimple. You can read about it here:
https://www.trains.com/trn/news-reviews/news-wire/union-pacific-says-autonomous-trains-are-the-answer-to-driverless-trucks/
Key quote:
UP invested in autonomous truck company TuSimple in December to keep tabs on the technology, and so it can test driverless rigs for intermodal drayage service, Fritz says. TuSimple, which runs autonomous trucks in the Southwest with a driver aboard who can step in if necessary, plans to make its first driverless revenue move this fall.
So we have some clarification on the issue. Autonomous trucks are coming fast and the transition is going to be painful for railroading. A lot of things are going to change. Certainly we will see market share loss and consolidation. Shortline railroading is unlikely to survive as well. The question is how much can the damage be limited.
What do you think?
ttrraaffiiccWhat do you think?
Why do you post on this site?
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.
RRs will have to do more than run autonomous trains to be competitive with autonomous trucks. Labor is a much larger share of trucking cost than rail cost, so going autonomous will reduce the cost of truck shipment a lot more than the cost of rail shipment. Likewise, fuel is a much larger share of trucking cost than rail cost, so going electric will reduce the cost of truck shipment a lot more than the cost of rail shipment. Where else can RRs save money to remain competitive? I have 2 suggestions.
The total ROW cost of rail shipment is probably a lot lower than by truck but trucking’s ROW cost is heavily subsidized by governments. RRs will need to push for a level playing field more than ever.
Also, autonomy provides opportunities to farther reduce costs and improve service. RRs have been continually increasing train length to spread out the labor cost over more carloads. With no labor costs, trains can be much shorter. Most trains could be mini unit trains, eliminating the need for most yards, which would save a lot of money and allow much faster service. Freight cars could be lighter as they wouldn’t need to be able to withstand the force of 200 cars of slack action, reducing fuel consumption. Short trains could run faster, providing faster service. Passenger trains could run with the faster freights without a lot overtake meets. On single track lines, trains could run as fleets in each direction to allow meets. By not coupling the “fleets” into long trains, each could run directly from origin to destination without wasting time and money in yards.
ttrraaffiiccWe finally have some clarification on the mysterious investment Union Pacific and CN made into TuSimple. You can read about it here: https://www.trains.com/trn/news-reviews/news-wire/union-pacific-says-autonomous-trains-are-the-answer-to-driverless-trucks/ Key quote: UP invested in autonomous truck company TuSimple in December to keep tabs on the technology, and so it can test driverless rigs for intermodal drayage service, Fritz says. TuSimple, which runs autonomous trucks in the Southwest with a driver aboard who can step in if necessary, plans to make its first driverless revenue move this fall. So we have some clarification on the issue. Autonomous trucks are coming fast and the transition is going to be painful for railroading. A lot of things are going to change. Certainly we will see market share loss and consolidation. Shortline railroading is unlikely to survive as well. The question is how much can the damage be limited. What do you think?
I think railroads will toe test any technology that seems to have some kind of ability to help them. At this point, nothing more and nothing less.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Last night I saw on one of the Omaha TV stations an item of the current truck driver shortage. It said as many as 160,000 drivers are needed.
I guess they didn't get the memo.
‘We kind of de-emphasized trades’: National truck driver shortage (ketv.com)
Jeff
Jeff, your implied point is correct. There are a lot of reports in the business media of the truck driver shortage and it is only going to get worse. My brother tried long-haul and it is a tough life, weeks at a time living in the cab and being alone on the road, away from family. The away-from-home time was a much longer stretch at a time compared to friends who are airline employees and probably most railroad jobs, I would guess. I am not sure how it compares to riverboat jobs.
Meanwhile, freight tonnage is growing and needs to be moved. With a shortage of truck drivers that means some pricing will edge up. Railroads have a chance to capture some traffic from the highways if-if-they play their cards right.
It would be wise to read the actual linked story, which most definitely invokes the specter of autonomous trucks, and electric trucks, becoming more "competitive" with rail. The issue isn't what ttrraaffiicc may think, or what we think, but what Lance Fritz thinks. And what -- predictably, I think -- he will say about it. This is actually a story about material in UP's Investor Day presentations, and significant in that context.
Whether or not autonomous electric trucks will actually come to constitute a major future threat is almost immaterial to the story. Mr. Fritz is quoted as saying he is concerned about it... and that the answer will involve regulations changes permitting many more single-man crews, autonomous trains, "[reducing] the number of people in the cab of the locomotive to match the work"
Who was it who originated the "superconductor" idea? Here it is again, except now in the context of "ground-based conductors responsible for several trains"; conductors who would -- Mr. Fritz seems to have told investors with a straight face -- work regular hours and sleep in their beds every night. Perhaps benefiting from UP's autonomous vehicle stake in having self-driving PTC-enabled hi-rail vehicles so they can keep up with paperwork as they shuttle between trains?
And oh, yes, lest we forget, the other two legs of the competitive response as given in the Trains News account: more fuel efficiency in operation (which I suspect mostly involves notch restrictions and slower accelerations and speeds) and mo' better PSR. Those will help address the greater advantages of the prospective trucking threat... 'course they will.
I think we can gainfully discuss this "vision" outside the usual-suspect trolling give-and-take, but a logical first step is to actually find and read the Investor Day presentations (I think they ought to have been linked in the Trains story... but you know how they are.) You can find them here (scroll down for the presentation PDFs):
https://www.up.com/investor/presentations/investor-day/inv-day-materials/index.htm
I apologize that in a previous editing of this post I called for the focus of the thread to be shifted to discussion of the Trains News story itself. I think a wise alternative would be to start a new thread purely about discussion of the implicit messages in the Investor Day presentations, rather than hijack this one to do so. If someone agrees with this, please do so.
Autonomous trucks, autonomous trains, autonomous airplanes, autonomous pizza delivery...
When someone comes up with a way to automate the C-suites in this country, they'll really have discovered the way to save money.
CW
Autonomous civilization - no place for humans
Saw a robot floor cleaning machine cleaning the floors at Walmart the other day. It deftly avoided the shoppers. Wondered if it was being paid $15 an hour? "Clean up on Aisle Common Sense!"
GrampSaw a robot floor cleaning machine cleaning the floors at Walmart the other day. It deftly avoided the shoppers. Wondered if it was being paid $15 an hour? "Clean up on Aisle Common Sense!"
A similar robot is being used in one of the grocery stores I frequent. In watching its operation 'cleaning up a spill in Aisle 3' is beyond its capacities. It does well with the small bits of trash and similar small things that hit the floor - big things not so much. For a while he was outfitted with a 'Covid Mask'.
Juniata Man When someone comes up with a way to automate the C-suites in this country, they'll really have discovered the way to save money. CW
They're already hard at work on that one. That's the sort of stuff I currently work on: data integration so that overgrown spreadsheets can make decisions instead of humans.
NittanyLion Juniata Man When someone comes up with a way to automate the C-suites in this country, they'll really have discovered the way to save money. CW They're already hard at work on that one. That's the sort of stuff I currently work on: data integration so that overgrown spreadsheets can make decisions instead of humans.
With any kind of luck - we will automate all forms of jobs that humans perform then everyone can be on unemployment.
Even old Henry Ford understood that you had to have workers and pay them enough to afford your products.
BackshopEven old Henry Ford understood that you had to have workers and pay them enough to afford your products.
Maybe Henry Ford did - but today's 'smart money' think humans are overrated and unneeded.
The Brain Center at Whipple's.
The Twilight Zone 1959 153 The Brain Center at Whipple's - video Dailymotion
I work in the OTR industry. The so called driver shortage is real but not as large as they claim it is. The Mega fleets that train are always screaming they are short drivers well it could be the way they treat their drivers also. Low pay per mile low miles trainers that have less time you want to think about. CR England the worst training fleet there is will let you train another driver with just 6 MONTHS OTR driving. That's like making a PFC in the Military a Drill Instructor. The drivers that do survive the mega fleets and get into the better ones like my bosses well let's just say refuse to leave. There is a reason why England around here stands for Every New Guy Leaves After Ninety Days and the SWIFT stands for See What I F'ed Up Today. England last year had a turnover rate of almost 600 Percent. That means every truck in it's fleet could have had up to 6 different drivers in it in a year. Swift was at around 400 Percent in the freaking Pandemic. Last year we had a 20 Percent rate and that was due mostly to retirements. See the difference between a carrier that treats drivers well and one that treats them like garbage. Guess which one's are screaming the loudest about a driver shortage. The members of the ATA. The same one's that are pushing for 18 year olds to be Interstate allowed heavier trucks they want 100K pounds on the roads among several other items that smaller carriers are against.
The future of automation:
York1 John
jeffhergertThe Brain Center at Whipple's. The Twilight Zone 1959 153 The Brain Center at Whipple's - video Dailymotion Jeff
Whipple's Charmin got squeezed.
Shadow the Cats ownerpushing for 18 year olds to be Interstate allowed
In Vietnam we had to watch out for 18 year olds doing anything with heavy equipment or firearms. One kid hit a Lambretta tri-truck with a 5-ton, killing about 8 civilians. After the "inquiry" he painted cone-hatted stick figures on the cab's doors. We had one fragging, a couple of M16 score-settling incidents, and an unfortunate and (to a rational person) unnecessary suicide. All this in our little HQ battery over one year. Seemed like immaturity and drugs were "the enemy within".
What will be the age of reason for autonomous trucks, cars and trains?
Rick
rixflix aka Captain Video. Blessed be Jean Shepherd and all His works!!! Hooray for 1939, the all time movie year!!! I took that ride on the Reading but my Baby caught the Katy and left me a mule to ride.
rixflix Shadow the Cats owner pushing for 18 year olds to be Interstate allowed In Vietnam we had to watch out for 18 year olds doing anything with heavy equipment or firearms. One kid hit a Lambretta tri-truck with a 5-ton, killing about 8 civilians. After the "inquiry" he painted cone-hatted stick figures on the cab's doors. We had one fragging, a couple of M16 score-settling incidents, and an unfortunate and (to a rational person) unnecessary suicide. All this in our little HQ battery over one year. Seemed like immaturity and drugs were "the enemy within". What will be the age of reason for autonomous trucks, cars and trains? Rick
Shadow the Cats owner pushing for 18 year olds to be Interstate allowed
Depends on the 18 year old. Some are more mature than others. There are some 40 year olds I wouldn't allow anywhere near a pushmower let alone a truck.
ttrraaffiicc... One keypoint you're missing.. The RR's are playing it smart here.. Allow a startup to take the burden of intial cost and developing the technology with the RR's taking a small position into the venture with minimal loss to the balance sheet. This gives the RR's an edge along with some equity.
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