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Rail volumes down?

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  • Member since
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  • From: Guelph, Ontario
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Rail volumes down?
Posted by Ulrich on Tuesday, April 27, 2021 3:23 PM

It seems to me that rail volumes are way down... not as many trains through Guelph lately, and Bayview Junction is deader than I've ever seen it. That seems to fall in line with the lacklustre Q1 results that are rolling in..

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Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, April 27, 2021 3:39 PM

The regular viewers at Deshler keep count (and a record) of the trains passing through there.  The numbers have been consistently in the high 50's for a while now.

Of course, that's the train count, not the car count.  There have been some shorter trains of late.  I don't watch the cam consistently, so I can't speak to any real trends.

 

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, April 27, 2021 4:33 PM

Not in my area. Grain, ethanol and pink rocks are keeping the BNSF line here busy.

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, April 27, 2021 4:46 PM

Ulrich
It seems to me that rail volumes are way down... not as many trains through Guelph lately, and Bayview Junction is deader than I've ever seen it. That seems to fall in line with the lacklustre Q1 results that are rolling in.

Each geographical area and country has its own traffic and commodity patterns.  Not all move in the same direction at the same time.

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Posted by Shadow the Cats owner on Tuesday, April 27, 2021 4:50 PM

The Transcon is as busy as ever at least by my house.  Some trains are a little shorter but most are as long and some are a bit longer.

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Posted by Ulrich on Tuesday, April 27, 2021 4:51 PM

Pretty slow here although maybe I'm just not watching at the right times. 

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Posted by MP173 on Wednesday, April 28, 2021 12:31 PM

CSX thru Deshler has added several new trains...unbundled a few auto/intermodal trains into separate trains...for instance they established a Q142/143 pair between North Baltimore and Jacksonville.  Auto rack now move solo on Q202/203.

Also added a Toledo - Cincy pair - Q510/Q511 pair about 6 weeks ago...mostly auto rack.

Also added a Cincy-Cleveland pair Q555/556.

Train count seems stable at Deshler and also at Berea.  

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Tuesday, May 4, 2021 1:08 PM

I believe I read in the Wall Street Journal last week that this year car loading are running 9% ABOVE the same period last year.

So, they might still be running behind where they were in April of 2019 but we're making progress.

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Posted by SD70Dude on Tuesday, May 4, 2021 1:55 PM

Things always seem to slow down in the spring.  Fewer, longer trains can be run again due to warmer weather, and all the other cold-related problems disappear.  

Work block season is just starting, if a major maintenance project is taking place in your are during the day most or all trains will be staged until it ends.  

In western Canada oilfield-related traffic really drops off during spring breakup, the time of year when the ground thaws and road bans (truck weight restrictions) are in effect.

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Posted by ns145 on Tuesday, May 4, 2021 3:13 PM

Fred M Cain

I believe I read in the Wall Street Journal last week that this year car loading are running 9% ABOVE the same period last year.

So, they might still be running behind where they were in April of 2019 but we're making progress.

According to the AAR, 2021 carload and intermodal volumes are currently running above 2019 levels in the US: https://www.aar.org/data-center/rail-traffic-data/

This is not the case for Canada, however (switch the country selection on the AAR chart).

That said, thanks to the "magic" of PSR, the traffic rebound in the US probably will not translate into a significant number of new trains.

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Posted by Bruce Kelly on Tuesday, May 4, 2021 3:57 PM

"...the traffic rebound in the US probably will not translate into a significant number of new trains."

Just longer trains.

 

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Posted by Ulrich on Tuesday, May 4, 2021 4:26 PM

Trucking rates are sky high right now. If there was ever a time for railroads to swoop in and convert some of that traffic to rail, this would be it. Moreover, some large shippers today have thousands of loads sitting due to lack of equipment. My largest customer has 1700 loads available right now out of one mill alone, alot of them long overdue  with February and March delivery dates on them.  

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, May 4, 2021 5:00 PM

Ulrich
Trucking rates are sky high right now. If there was ever a time for railroads to swoop in and convert some of that traffic to rail, this would be it. Moreover, some large shippers today have thousands of loads sitting due to lack of equipment. My largest customer has 1700 loads available right now out of one mill alone, alot of them long overdue  with February and March delivery dates on them.  

Are you sure they weren't being sent via US Postal Service with that kind of delay?

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Posted by Ulrich on Tuesday, May 4, 2021 5:21 PM

BaltACD

 

 
Ulrich
Trucking rates are sky high right now. If there was ever a time for railroads to swoop in and convert some of that traffic to rail, this would be it. Moreover, some large shippers today have thousands of loads sitting due to lack of equipment. My largest customer has 1700 loads available right now out of one mill alone, alot of them long overdue  with February and March delivery dates on them.  

 

Are you sure they were being sent via US Postal Service with that kind of delay?

 

 

I wish.. 

Many trucking carriers are happy with this state of affairs i.e. high rates, but I'm apprehensive about it as customers are obviously looking at all options. Likely the railroads are exploring new opportunities with these shippers.. sure truck is faster.. but.. if it takes four weeks to get a truck for a load then transit time becomes a moot point. May as well ship it by rail. 

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