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A Dark Future

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Saturday, January 4, 2020 10:47 PM

daveklepper

One real growth area in both loose-car and unit-train railroading is chemical products, both raw-material input and product output and export.  This is primarily focused on the Gulf Coast, Texas in particulary, with UP the prime beneficiary, followed by BNSF, and KCS a distant third.

 

Growth? Or current traffic?

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

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Posted by Overmod on Sunday, January 5, 2020 12:23 AM

Paul Milenkovic
How does a cold weather heat pump outside unit work when you get snow drifts?  Do you have to venture outside and shovel off the snow?

Yes, because you still need the airflow for the heat content.  These things work with refrigerant that boils in a different range, and probably have somewhat higher fan circulation as the heat content for a given mass flow through the 'evaporator' is less.

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Posted by Paul of Covington on Sunday, January 5, 2020 1:31 AM

Overmod

 

 
Paul Milenkovic
How does a cold weather heat pump outside unit work when you get snow drifts?  Do you have to venture outside and shovel off the snow?

 

Yes, because you still need the airflow for the heat content.  These things work with refrigerant that boils in a different range, and probably have somewhat higher fan circulation as the heat content for a given mass flow through the 'evaporator' is less.

 

   Back in the eighties, I was in an apartment in New Jersey in the winter that had a heat pump with resistance back-up.  I noticed that when there was snow on the ground, you would periodically see "steam" (actually condensation) rising from the outside unit.  I don't know, but I'm guessing that it periodically reversed the pump to melt the snow.  Whether it used the resistance heater to heat the inside unit at the same time, I don't know.  I keep wanting to use the terms "condenser" and "evaporator", but their roles keep reversing.  Anyway, this is mostly conjecture, so if anyone knows otherwise....

_____________ 

  "A stranger's just a friend you ain't met yet." --- Dave Gardner

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Posted by daveklepper on Sunday, January 5, 2020 1:44 AM

Growth.  Plastic use will increase, fertilizer, medical chemistry, etc.

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Posted by Overmod on Sunday, January 5, 2020 7:03 AM

When the reversing valves in the heat-pump system are set to 'heat', the outside coil acts as the 'evaporator' (to draw whatever heat from the outside it can).  Just as in normal 'air conditioner' operation, if the refrigerant cools the evaporator below the freezing point of atmospheric water, ice will form on the coil and may eventually proceed to disturb airflow of even plug it... at which point the refrigerant will no longer boil to absorb heat and start slugging liquid into the compressor, which is Not A Good Thing.  I would not be surprised to see arrangements to use resistance heat externally to keep the coil free of condensation -- of course the COP does not help the efficiency of resistance heat vs. using it directly after the air handler as in conventional resistance HVAC, but a relatively smaller amount of power can be used for 'de-icing' than for full space heating.

Now, in the evil old days, when the only provision of resistance heating in these systems was as 'emergency heat' when things got too cold for efficient heat-pumping, the de-icing would probably be done by periodic reversal of the reversing valves and operation of the outside coil as a condenser ... raising its temperature from 'inside heat' now generated silently but relatively inefficiently from the resistance -element array.  This of course cycled the reversing arrangement more often which would increase likelihood of something sticking or failing... but would be cheaper to build.

If you split the refrigerant systems, as becomes easy with ground-source heat pumps, you have one sealed loop for cooling, and a separate one with different refrigerant and component sizes only for heating.  These can use refrigerator-size compressors with appropriately higher reliability and the refrigerant loops are sealed so no wacky valves to fail or leak.  I could spend quite some time explaining the ways this can be preferable, but it has little to do with railroad applications.

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Posted by PJS1 on Sunday, January 5, 2020 10:23 AM

theman
As we wave the 2010s goodbye, it is becoming increasingly clear that we may have to wave the railroads goodbye as well. The future looks dark, very dark. 

Norfolk Southern’s financial numbers indicate executive management is managing the company pretty well.  They probably are a good proxy for the industry.
 
The share price increased 90.4 percent from January 1, 2015 through December 31, 2019.  Over the same period the S&P 500 increased 58.2 percent.
 
Revenues increased 9 percent.  Operating income before depreciation increased 25.6 percent.  Operating income after depreciation increased 30.4 percent.  Pretax income increased 42.1 percent.  Net income increased 71.6 percent.
 
The company invested $7.9 billion in property, plant, and equipment between 2015 and 2019.  It bought back $5.4 billion in common shares, which undoubtedly had an impact on the value of its common shares. 
 
Net cash flows from operations, arguably the most important indicator of the financial health of a company increased 30.1 percent.  Many financial analysis believe cash flow is the most important indicator of the financial health of a company.
 
Long term debt increased 12.1 percent.  Presumably some of the proceeds from the issuance of low interest long-term debt were used to buy back the common stock. 
 
The company’s Trailing Twelve Month return on equity was 18.1 percent, which lagged the road and rail average of 49.74 percent.  However, its TTM return on total investments, which is a better metric, was 8.10 percent compared to the road and rail average of 2.76 percent. 
 
The TTM long-term debt/equity ratio was 74.9 percent compared to the road and rail average of 125.6 percent, which indicates Norfolk Southern is not over leveraged. 
 
If Norfolk Southern is indicative of the nation’s large railroads, the notion that they are headed out of business is not supported by their financial performance.

Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII

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Posted by Randy Stahl on Sunday, January 5, 2020 11:20 AM

This is the decade in which I will retire in (2026), I am comfortable that I will be able to. 

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Posted by MidlandMike on Sunday, January 5, 2020 9:25 PM

My neighbor bought his house with the geothermal heating system already in it.  He eventually shut it down in favor of a propane furnace, because the well maintenance/repair costs were eating his lunch.

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Posted by Overmod on Monday, January 6, 2020 6:58 AM

MidlandMike

My neighbor bought his house with the geothermal heating system already in it.  He eventually shut it down in favor of a propane furnace, because the well maintenance/repair costs were eating his lunch.

You'd be surprised at all the little 'gotchas' over the years that have had to be learned regarding the design, care and feeding of various kinds of ground loops.  One somewhat amusing variant with its own list of cautionary tales is the technology that puts the Freon exchanger in the ground-source region rather than a secondary antifreeze loop ... 

It does have to be said that the Slinky loop in semi automated trenching has a number of attractive advantages over deep vertical wells with Bentonite especially in uncertain soils.  I did not see that approach coming so cannot plead superior acumen in design innovation.  It does help however to think carefully about the various things that might be expected to fail over the presumptive 'financed lifetime' of one of these systems, and ways to design all the little details for quick and 'as easy as possible' remediation.

It came as a surprise to me that many of these systems lacked freeze protection for the portions of the ground loop out of the constant-temperature zone, or had inadequate access to the circulation pump or its connections.  This shouldn't be rocket science.  (Although there can be considerable technical sophistication a la optical-fiber field-splicing kits for making flow-optimized high-integrity field joints in the ground-source loop tubing...)

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