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News Wire: Analysts press NS about keeping pace with CSX

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Posted by Brian Schmidt on Thursday, July 26, 2018 8:35 AM

NORFOLK, Va. — There’s more than one way to run a railroad. That sums up Norfolk Southern’s response to Wall Street analysts’ questions on why it has not closed a widening operating ratio gap with its Eastern rival, CSX Trans...

http://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2018/07/26-analysts-press-norfolk-southern-about-keeping-pace-with-csx

Brian Schmidt, Editor, Classic Trains magazine

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Saturday, July 28, 2018 10:52 AM

I'm surprised no one has posted anything about this.  

As an NS shareholder, I would have had 5 responses, only the 4th of which NS provided (understandably): 

  1. Go screw yourself!
  2. As a representative of a corrupt bank (Deutsche Bank analyst Amit Mehrotra - Deutsche Bank has had numerous money-laundering and compliance issues) - you have no business asking anyone about their business practices.
  3. You and you bank are not shareholders and don't have significant ownership anyway - see 1 and 2 above.  
  4. NS is in this for the long-term, not short-term speculative gains.
  5. NS is looking for all the revenue and profit under the curve, not just at the highest marginal rate (which is what happens when focused on OR alone).  You need an understanding of basic calculus or Economics 201 to understand this point. 

- PDN. 

"This Fascinating Railroad Business" (title of 1943 book by Robert Selph Henry of the AAR)
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Posted by rrnut282 on Saturday, July 28, 2018 11:20 AM

6.  The low-hanging fruit is gone.  It will take more than a quarterly view to see improvement.  

7.  How many "bad" quarters did CSX have to go through to get this one good one?  It takes more than a quarterly view to see improvement.  

8.  I'm happy with my dividend check as it is.  Otherwise, there are plenty of other fish in the sea.  

Mike (2-8-2)
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Posted by n012944 on Saturday, July 28, 2018 8:13 PM

An "expensive model collector"

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Sunday, July 29, 2018 9:41 AM

From the linked article:

"Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker raised his target price, but only from $49 to $52, and he remains more skeptical with an “underweight” rating on the stock.

“The management team is executing and delivering what they said they would (and more),” Shanker said in his report.

“We are not questioning the numbers CSX is putting up (which are impressive) — we are trying to identify what the long-term sustainable level of earnings is and what multiple investors should pay for it.” (emphasis added - PDN)"

"CSX’s stock rose by $4.56 to $69 on July 18 after the earnings report, and it rose above $70 for the first time Monday."

Draw your own conclusions.

- PDN. 

"This Fascinating Railroad Business" (title of 1943 book by Robert Selph Henry of the AAR)
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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, July 29, 2018 10:50 AM

Isn't Ravi the one who taught the sitar to the Beatles back in the day?

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by n012944 on Sunday, July 29, 2018 8:25 PM

Paul_D_North_Jr

Draw your own conclusions.

- PDN. 

 

 

Cherry picking certain quotes from an article, than asking someone to draw conclusions from it?  Sure, lets do that.

 

He said drops in dwell at CSX have increased its overall efficiency, by his calculations, 11 percent higher than what customers had been experiencing.

“NS, in contrast, is operating 18 percent below what its customers have come to expect. Our thesis is basically that good things should happen to the railroad on the right side of this service divide,” he said. “We’re skeptical on the time it will take NS to restore service to normal levels, and by then ‘normal’ may not be good enough as CSX shows no signs of standing still.”

"Paterson upgraded his rating on CSX’s stock from “hold” to “buy” last week and increased his price target for the stock from $65 to $78 after the earnings report."

Credit Suisse analyst Allison Landry raised her target by $2 to $78. She sees opportunities for continued revenue growth.

“While we cringed a bit upon hearing that export coal was a factor (given the likelihood for tonnage declines in 2019+), the more salient point vis a vis the top line is that CSX will leverage its improved service (transit times, reliability, etc.) to take share from truck,” Landry said in her report.

Deutsche Bank analyst Amit Mehrotra raised his target from $79 to $83."

Draw your own conclusions, and don't be blinded by foam.

 

An "expensive model collector"

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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, July 29, 2018 8:40 PM

My conclusions are that both companies and both Analysts are involved in financial ledger manipulation.  Hocus Pocus - throw enough lies against the wall and you have alternate truths.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Monday, July 30, 2018 1:16 PM

BaltACD

My conclusions are that both companies and both Analysts are involved in financial ledger manipulation.  Hocus Pocus - throw enough lies against the wall and you have alternate truths.

 

I know your distaste for the current occupant is almost as strong as mine, but your claiming reports from reputable analysts are false is almost as bad as Trump's assaults on the 1st Amendment and press.  The true "fake news" is DJT's Twitter posts of disinformation, exaggerations and outright lies.

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, July 30, 2018 1:35 PM

charlie hebdo
 
BaltACD

My conclusions are that both companies and both Analysts are involved in financial ledger manipulation.  Hocus Pocus - throw enough lies against the wall and you have alternate truths. 

I know your distaste for the current occupant is almost as strong as mine, but your claiming reports from reputable analysts are false is almost as bad as Trump's assaults on the 1st Amendment and press.  The true "fake news" is DJT's Twitter posts of disinformation, exaggerations and outright lies.

Analysts all have their own personal slants on how they view things, and they all have their own personal investment portfolios.  How they juggle the potential conflicts of interest ..............

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by rrnut282 on Thursday, August 2, 2018 4:40 PM

charlie hebdo

 

 
BaltACD

My conclusions are that both companies and both Analysts are involved in financial ledger manipulation.  Hocus Pocus - throw enough lies against the wall and you have alternate truths.

 

 

 

I know your distaste for the current occupant is almost as strong as mine, but your claiming reports from reputable analysts are false is almost as bad as Trump's assaults on the 1st Amendment and press.  The true "fake news" is DJT's Twitter posts of disinformation, exaggerations and outright lies.

 

Please remove the log from your eye, you can't see the trees with the forest in the way.  

Mike (2-8-2)
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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, August 2, 2018 9:19 PM

The only numbers CSX published that I ever trusted - were the Gross numbers on my pay check when it agreed with what I calculated the Gross to be.

Can't say that I necessarily agreed with the net numbers - I didn't have access to the algorythems used to calculate tax withholding.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by daveklepper on Friday, August 3, 2018 1:48 AM

Bottom line for me is that NS did grow the business 12% and CSX 2%.   So NS'a service could not have been all that bad nor CSX's all that good.

And OR isn't everything, as has been stated many times.

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