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I think this will be the trend in next ten year with some condition that can turn that around. First the reason that this will happen. 1. Rail is the cheapest cost per ton mile, in fact way ahead of what in second place. 2. Energy cost has risen in the short term and seem it will continue long term. 3. Highway infrastructure will continue to decline or road taxes will continue to increase. One or the other with both effecting trucking 4. Highway traffic will continue to plague trucking greatest assest is the ability to deliver loads in less amount of time. The reasons that will prevent rails from taking business from trucking 1. Increased traffic on rail lines due to increase business 2. Lack of rail to carry the increase traffic thus slowing deliver times even lower (Railroads lack the "Field of Dream" idea, build it and they will come idea) 3. Increased in coal loads thus increase of traffic 4. Railroads continue to give priority route status to coal over general merchandise ( general merchandise that was taken from ther trucking business) Any of these items can change at a moments notice and advance forward or make steps back in gathering truck business. Of an interesting note in one of the last couple of months issue of "Trains" there is an article talking about the Swiss wanting to reduce truck traffic and the steps they are taking to obtain that goal. One idea being that there would be a reduction of gas emision and reduction of traffic. Are we at that point yet? I don't think so but I would pay attention to what is happening Europe and letting them be the bell weather case. Bob Berry
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