are we headding into a recession again? last several weeks carloadings have dropped like a hot potatoe !!! hope it gets normal real soon.....
I believe that the news coverage of the economy is curiously overlooking the fact that that the economy is nearly in recession now, and that any growth over the last eight years has been modest at best. The first quarter GDP number will soon be released, and its estimate has been falling throughout the quarter. Today, it is less than +1%. Ideally this economy would be growing at 5-7% coming out of the housing bubble burst in 2008.
Coal is in collapse due to natural gas competition and environmental regulations. Petroleum is in collapse as foreign crude underprices American crude.Grain is being affected by Argentina lifting internal taxes making their grain a bargain.
So, legitimate competive pressures affect those carloadings.
What is bothersome is the decline in intermodal. As truck tonmiles are increasing, the railroad industry is not getting the business.
Worrisome.
https://www.aar.org/pages/freight-rail-traffic-data.aspx[quote user="chicagorails"]
Looking at carloadings for the past year reveals a mixed picture. The fact that carloadings is down so significantly is because of decreased demand for coal and to a certain extent, oil. Check this out and then filter out car loadings excluding coal and oil and things look fine. https://www.aar.org/pages/freight-rail-traffic-data.aspx
Euclid I believe that the news coverage of the economy is curiously overlooking the fact that that the economy is nearly in recession now, and that any growth over the last eight years has been modest at best. The first quarter GDP number will soon be released, and its estimate has been falling throughout the quarter. Today, it is less than +1%. Ideally this economy would be growing at 5-7% coming out of the housing bubble burst in 2008.
When was the last time the US economy grew at a 5-7% growth rate one quarter? 2015 Q2 6.1% Two consecutive quarters? 2005 Q4 5.4% and 2006 Q1 8.2%.
Definition of recession: Negative growth in GDP two consecutive quarters, i.e., 6 months, at a minimum. These are precise economic terms
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
Yard Limit, you hit the nail on the head. Coal has been replaced by natural gas via pipeline, and oil has also been suseptable to pipeline. Iron ore is also down, but these have been hit by foreign steel. Economist are not seeing a US recession.
[quote user="MidlandMike"]
Totally agree. Sometimes you just have to look behind the numbers to understand them.
Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.