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Unscientiofic Quiz: Is rail traffic down from its normal volumes where you railfan?

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Unscientiofic Quiz: Is rail traffic down from its normal volumes where you railfan?
Posted by samfp1943 on Thursday, October 8, 2015 1:25 PM

    I live in an area where we normally experience quite a bit of "normal" Rail traffic. I think that the count in our area of the BNSF's Southern Transcon is on the order of 90 plus trains a day. (?)

    It seems that our regular traffic flow is down by quite a few trains.  Certainly, coal trains are more infrequent. Auto racks, as well, are nowhere near what they were even several weeks ago. 

    There was recently work being done on the Emporia Sub to our Northeast, but even the grain/hopper car moves seem to have fallen off in the last three weeks.

   So I was just curious to find out if any others have have had similar perceptions of the traffic where they are rail fanning.

Thanks!

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Thursday, October 8, 2015 2:06 PM

     In our area, it seems like it's double what it usually is for this time of year.  BNSF seems to be trying to empty the state of grain ahead the harvest.

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Posted by Mookie on Thursday, October 8, 2015 2:45 PM

Sam, get out your binoculars and look north - we were just trackside and coal is running thru here like there is a big bonfire planned.  

They are moving a few grain trains and track repair equipment plus 2 door bottom dumps moving...just about anything they want to, I guess.  

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Posted by CBT on Thursday, October 8, 2015 2:46 PM

CN in Flint Michigan is running trains faster and less i think. That is a real bummer because CN is not a frequent railroad I get to railfann in othe places then Flint.

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Posted by tree68 on Thursday, October 8, 2015 3:01 PM

I don't see a lot of the traffic that runs through my area - too far from the tracks and catching one of the 4-5 trains that run is a hit-and-miss thing.

The one I did see the other day seemed a little short, but I can't really judge from that.

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Posted by CShaveRR on Thursday, October 8, 2015 3:44 PM

I hear plenty, see fewer.  My trip Tuesday had the manifests running shorter than normal, but that's the post-weekend slump, for the most part.

There were still plenty of stack trains, and today's auto-rack train was pretty good-sized.  

The coal trains up here seem to be fewer in number, but I've noticed that they come in fleets some days.  All of the usual destinations are still represented.

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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, October 8, 2015 3:57 PM

 

Depends on which railroad - 1 up, 3 down.

Total Carloadings

BNSF:  2015 Week 39 = 214,780.  2014 = 208,554. 

NS:      2015 Week 39 = 148,711; 2014 = 153,981.

UP:      2015 Week 39 = 183,251; 2014 = 193,921.

CSX:    2015 Week 39 = 135,721; 2014 = 138,728.

If you dig deeper, the declines would be worse except for intermodal traffic, which is up.

 

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Posted by Andrew Falconer on Thursday, October 8, 2015 9:01 PM

The railroad traffic on the CN/GTW in Michigan has decreased during the daylight hours.

Most of the rail traffic on the CN/GTW occurs now between 22:00 to 2:00.

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Posted by MP173 on Thursday, October 8, 2015 9:26 PM

Regarding CN in Michigan...have you seen distributed power on manifest trains?  I saw one last Sunday here in NW Indiana.  My guess is the train was 348, it had 2 front end locomotives and about 125 cars in had a single unit.  It was a heavy train with quite a bit of sand and lumber. The DP was cut in just before auto racks.  There were about 160 cars.

Car counts are down from what I have noticed.  Freight is down.  The truckers are feeling a slowdown as are the rails.

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Posted by samfp1943 on Friday, October 9, 2015 12:44 AM

Mookie

Sam, get out your binoculars and look north - we were just trackside and coal is running thru here like there is a big bonfire planned.  

They are moving a few grain trains and track repair equipment plus 2 door bottom dumps moving...just about anything they want to, I guess.  

 

Thanks, Mookie!  

     As I had stated, my observations were purely observational impressions.  Our Coal traffic through here  seems to be heading toward Texas; that  would indicate taking the Ark City sub south. There used to be a couple of regular trains through here that were notable for their canvas tarps. They have not been through here in several weeks(?).  Grain traffic seems to be off quite a bit.  Used to be at least two or three each day in both directions. Lately, not so much.

 MP173: Ed:  You mentioned DPUs. Most all the trains seem to have DPUs on the rear...Merrchandise trains (Mixed Cars) will generally have only one rear DPU. Exception, is of course the Auto Racks, always have head-end power, but no rear DPU's.  There is one train that seems to have mid train DPUs and a rear DPU. It seems to be a stack train composed mostly of Export type Containers.  It was running baout once a week to the West. Have only seen one in the last several weeks.  Hard to figure the Tank Car movements...Through her going mostly West, and they seem to be empty moves. THe Crude OIl trains seem to be coming down via the line trough Wichita. 

 

 

 


 

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Posted by MP173 on Friday, October 9, 2015 6:59 AM

sampf:

Thanks for your reply.   I am noticing the regular import stack trains are pretty large these days, no doubt in time for the holiday shopping season.  The NS trains to Columbus and Harrisburg are running 250+ containers.  These generally are off the BNSF and will also have a mixture of JBH domestic containers.

Not much DP operations here.  CP runs DP on their oil movements on the NS, usually one motor at the front and one at the end.  The CN train I mentioned was the first such DP I have seen on that line.   What was really interesting was the placement of the DP about 125 cars in with another 35 cars behind it (mostly auto racks).  I am wondering of the makeup of the train with heavy sand cars and lumber in the middle with racks at the rear determined the placement.

Domestic intermodal seems to be down.  There are some NS movements which I monitor closely.  Train 24M is a daily Chicago - Baltimore (Pittsburgh drop) which was averaging about 70-90 containers per day, often with 50+ UPS.  This week has seen 25-40 containers with today's movement having only 23 UPS.  My guess is that freight movements are experiencing lower volumes and the truckers are adjusting pricing downward thus resulting in less movements on the intermodal trains.  But....that is just a guess.

 

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Posted by BaltACD on Friday, October 9, 2015 2:43 PM

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Posted by avonlea22 on Friday, October 9, 2015 10:49 PM

Where I live, just north of the Enola yard in PA (and I pass over the Enola yard frequently as well) there does not seem to be a decline in the past month or so. In fact, I've seen a bit more coal recently thyan in the past. Auto racks and intermodal seem to be pretty steady. If anything, it seems to have picked up a bit in the last week.

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Posted by schlimm on Monday, October 12, 2015 7:52 AM

BaltACD

Thanks!   Just goes to show that anecdotal evidence (as on here) is often false because we understandably lack both  the bigger picture and an accurate memory of past events for comparison.

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Posted by samfp1943 on Monday, October 12, 2015 10:20 AM

schlimm

 

 
BaltACD

 

Thanks!   Just goes to show that anecdotal evidence (as on here) is often false because we understandably lack both  the bigger picture and an accurate memory of past events for comparison.

 

   As the Topic line indicated my enquirey was not meant to be any more than annecdotal from the first.   I have read and followedsome of  'industry" publications that are similar to the "Railway Age" linked piece.

   it was my only intention to start a conversation among the Posters here to see if they were experiencing some of those similar trends. After all, many of the group here do observe, with interest, the railroads and their traffic in their home areas on a regular basis.

 Out here in South Central Kansas, I live at the intersection of traffic that feeds into the BNSF Southern T-con [at Mulvane,Ks].  BNSF is the primary tennant. We were used to seeing quite a few trains each day ( both East and Westbound. Several weeks ago there was a marked decrease in the traffic (Over the line to our East) It was accompanied by Ballast trains, CWR Trains and MOW transport trains. 

    Signs that would indicate that there was major 'work' taking place on that line (?).  After several weeks of virtually,little to nodily traffic.  It now comes in 'fleets' (several trains running just a short time apart) followed by no trains.)  Where there used to be a number of trains, a day, there are whole days when there might be one train to days without any trains.

I live at Mulvane; to our West is the Ark City Sub South of Wichita, to our East is the by-pass off the Emporia sub that can feed traffic to the West around the South side of Mulvane, and the line across the North side of town which feeds to the West (Sou. T-con) or onto the Ark City sub ( towards Windfield and Ar City) . Mulvane lays roughly at the center of a triangular pattern or rail lines, as described above.  SK&O has trackage rights from Winfield area to Wichita.

  It was, as I indicated, my own percerption that made me post the Original question on this Thread.

 

 

 


 

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Posted by schlimm on Monday, October 12, 2015 3:42 PM

samfp1943
As the Topic line indicated my enquirey was not meant to be any more than annecdotal from the first.  

I realized that.  And although the observations may well be accurate  individually, on the aggregate level they are not.   An interesting experiment.

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Posted by jeffhergert on Monday, October 12, 2015 4:32 PM

Car loadings give the big picture of a railroad and the industry.  It does not necessarily give a picture of local conditions.  You could have car loadings up overall, but it may not translate equally over an entire railroad.  A person in one locality could indeed be seeing reduced traffic or shorter trains, even though the reported numbers show otherwise.

In the 75th anniversary issue it mentions on their bucket list, Grand Island NE.  The item talks about the UP's incredibly busy transcon and a headlight every 5 minutes.  I wish.  Maybe some parts of some days, but not anytime everyday.    Most of that traffic is going to cross Iowa and I know our traffic levels aren't anywhere near that.  They haven't been for a long time.  I remember when I first hired out, the talk about how the UP was going to need a third track across Iowa and Illinois.  It's been a long time since anyone's talked about that.  Even completion of the Blair Subdivision double tracking project isn't talked about much anymore.  (They have done some bridge work and realigned a curve.  I'm hoping maybe it means they might lay another 6 miles of track on the existing roadbed in the near future.)

Jeff       

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, October 12, 2015 5:46 PM

Traffic on any particular subdivision or O-D pair is totally dependent upon the traffic mix that is handled.  Most subdivisions do not handle every kind of traffic that the railroad handles in it's overall traffic mix.  If one lives along a coal based subdivision and the bottom drops out of the grain business - you will never know it.  Additionally large class one's will route their traffic depending upon local operating conditions such as track work and signal construction curfews.  Mom Nature can also cause traffic to be rerouted.

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Posted by samfp1943 on Tuesday, October 13, 2015 10:30 AM

schlimm

 

 
samfp1943
As the Topic line indicated my enquirey was not meant to be any more than annecdotal from the first.  

 

I realized that.  And although the observations may well be accurate  individually, on the aggregate level they are not.   An interesting experiment.

 

Thank You, Professor:I have to agree with you about my 'little experiment"! I know the aggregated numbers for the American Rail picture are promising, and we seem to be on the cusp of a rising economy(?), but as I am railfanning in an area that is astride one of the major national rail arteries, the observations seemed to be contridictory to the reporting, nationally.

Jeff Hergert works in an a high traffic on the area of the Blair Sub (UPRR), and Balt ACD is sitting in  an observational 'cat-bird's seat' . 

   From my years in the trucking business, Iam aware( perceived?) that traffic flows in that industry can develop internal 'flow patterns' almost tide-like in their nature.  Weekly shipping patterns, and sometimes the tax on inventories caused some of those implications(?). 

 I wonder if some of the Posters up in the Upper Midwest have seen any differences in traffic flows their railfanning areas? Out West?     Again, just an interesting experiment. My 2 Cents

 

 


 

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Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, October 13, 2015 2:04 PM

Some of this observational disconnect goes back to a point I've noticed here and have discussed in other topics.

With just 4-6 trains a day through our area, it's possible for a person to cross the line twice a day (as I did for a number of years) for weeks at a time and not see a single train.  I've had times when I heard the defect detector that's located a short distance from one crossing, yet by the time I got to the crossing there was nary a train in sight.

Even someone who lives or works next to the tracks could be misled by the new CSX schedule (and similar adjustments elsewhere). Suddenly a train they used to see at suppertime each day isn't there.  It may come through while they sleep, or while they're at work, instead.  So their perception is that traffic is down.

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Posted by samfp1943 on Friday, October 16, 2015 8:34 AM

Just a short note:  All of a sunnden the BNSF has gotten done what they had been doing to the traffic through here. This past wednesday night we had a number of train through hee overnight ( did not coun them was sleeping! Zzz ) So it is comforting to see traffic picking up around here !

 

 

 


 

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Posted by Mookie on Friday, October 16, 2015 7:11 PM

Sam:  We have sent enough trains south to KS/MO lately, they ought to be running into each other.  

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Posted by MP173 on Thursday, October 22, 2015 6:55 AM

NS train 24M just passed Chesterton with 2 big motors pulling 18 trailers/containers.   This train routinely had 60 - 90 loads earlier this year.  

Perhaps NS has new blocking on this train.  It had a Pittsburgh block and a Baltimore block previously.

 

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Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Friday, October 23, 2015 7:50 PM

I'm a few miles west of CNs Mt Clemens Sub they're running 7 freights daily. Will be down too 5 starting next month. With NS cutting back on Triple Crown 2 are soon to be history.

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Posted by Andrew Falconer on Friday, October 23, 2015 11:02 PM

CN is operating the most trains over the Grand Trunk Western railroad between 22:00 and 8:00. The rest of the time the trains are rare.

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Posted by nycstlrr on Friday, October 23, 2015 11:13 PM
I can`t get out anymore but I do live close to a CSX line and it seems traffic has declined a little by the number of trains I hear.
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Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Saturday, October 24, 2015 11:27 AM

Andrew Falconer

CN is operating the most trains over the Grand Trunk Western railroad between 22:00 and 8:00. The rest of the time the trains are rare.

 

Yeah I noticed that a few months back. If I'm correct there was a tie replacement project going on the Mt Clemens Sub not too long ago north of CTC New Haven. Plus a few crossings have been resurfaced. Wasn't sure if that's why they changed the schedule.

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Posted by Firelock76 on Saturday, October 24, 2015 12:10 PM

Seems to be pretty much the same as always here in the Richmond VA area, CSX country.  Light days, heavy days along the RF&F sub.  Some days Acca Yard is full, some days it's empty, or nearly so.

I still see coal trains running along the old C&O river line, and can hear them at night from the house.  The coal's still coming and going somewhere.

These are just informal observations, mind you.

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Posted by ricktrains4824 on Monday, October 26, 2015 10:50 PM

In my area, one line is way down, going from running 3 road trains, plus about 4 coal drags each week, both ways, so, really about 2 trains per day if counting one direction only, to maybe 1 train every 2 weeks each way, so, maybe 2 trains counting single direction every two weeks, or less, and very short, sometimes returning light engine only. (Their rails are getting quite rusty looking. Before they were very shiny.)

Another line has also slowed slightly, going from running 5 days a week, out and back, to 3-4 days a week, out and back. But, they are running more cars per train, so, possibly same number of cars, just blocked differently.

Two other lines are about average, higher on intermodal and tanks, but lower on coal. Average for manifests, though they seem longer than before. Auto racks seem about average. 

And one other line near me, but I have never seen a train on it, ever, because I am never there at the right time. So, I cannot speak as to them. 

So, overall, while one line is way down, the others are probably about where they have been for a while now.

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