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Alexander, Yea, you hit me where it hurts on that one ... "Give me (us?) a scenario for making a passenger system- any speed, any length- that'd be a profitable model." But then you saved me with the post following. Like you, I think Amtrak should cut, or threaten to cut, everything that doesn't make a profit. I would make up a list by specific route name with everything I plan to cut and take it to the legislature(s) and put that on the table. If you want any of these routes, here's what it will cost you to keep it. That would generate much weeping and knashing of teeth and I may be an asphalt and feather blob outside DC five minutes later but that is what I think would be the first step. Now, let's assume the worst case (the one I advocate BTW) happens and they tell me to "Shove It". Based on what they say here and my own impressions, all I have left is the NEC. Then I inventory all my equipment and put the best stuff up there and operate for a year while I do market research on where a profitable line could be built. Meanwhile, I go to the govenors of the NEC states and tell them how it is. If they are interested in helping me out in the short term thinking we have a common interest, then I might build new up there earlier than I would have on my own. But like you say in your other post, eventually another line becomes attractive, like from DC to Richmond VA through Fredricksburg and NoVa. When the market research shows it works, I build it to 150 mph standards wherever possible and include plans to upgrade the rest to 150 mph when the ridership is there. One problem is that I don't see much opportunity to get out of the NEC beyond Richmond, partly because I am not familiar with that part of the world. In theory, I extend the tree from the 'Root Ball' in the NEC in a similar manner. In addition, I look for places where I can upgrade the service in the NEC since that is where the lion's share of the revenue will come from in the short term. Now eventually, the NEC is going to demand a train to Florida. That's where part two of my plan comes in. I establish a bus service to serve the majority of the country. Newer buses which are linked to the rail network. In this way, I provide an intermodal network to the whole country and I can fill trains. How does this involve Florida? Initially I take all the yankees to Richmond and load up a few buses for the remainder of the trip. If the ridership on this route justifies it, I extend the line south to NC, then SC then Atlanta then Talahassee and finally Tampa and Miami. Likewise, my bus system operates everwhere else possible. Eventually, I will be able to build a 150 mph line out of Phily headed west like maybe Chicago. Everybody in the NEC headed west can get to Phily and then ride a 150 mph train to Chicago. Then I put them on my bus headed to Denver or wherever. One of the big benifits of this system is that it takes into account the best feature of our highway network (the fact that it already goes everywhere) and matches it to the best feature of the railroad (it is highly effecient once you have a full train load) and marries them together. It essentially emulates our airline hub model which allows them to make the biggest profit. If the coaches aren't full and operating on a regular schedule, then you are not going to make money. I don't think anything less than daily service in both directions is going to cut it. Now, after the initial cries from congress and the people when I cut all the noproductive service, the next thing you will hear is the bus companies hollerin' because my model makes a serious impact on their business. This is because I can go anywhere they go, probably quicker, and with more luxury when my customers are on the train. If I can provide this service at or near the cost of a bus ticket, they are gone. From this point, you keep executing the plan by doing the market research and building the line from the tree when the numbers are there. Probably some ranting but this is my basic concept. Cut it back to the ground. Create a bus line subsidiary and provide transportation to your customers. When your market research folks and engineering department say it is time to build a line, you build it to HSR standards wherever possible with plans to make it 100% HSR when you have the equipment. Two points which I emphasize though, as little (preferable none) government involved and build it for HSR dedicated operation. I don't want to be on the freight RRs track any more than they want me on their track. - Ed
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