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In the middle ages they argued how many fairies could dance on the head of a pin.Here the arguments are about fuels, electrification, and tractive effort curves.Let's see about actually pulling trains. What is less debatable than peak oil is peak capital. Anyone want to argue the current federal and trade deficits are sustainable? You do not have to be a right-wing sore tooth to see that much higher interest rates are on the way.Ergo, electrification, whether mobile or centralized, in a non-starter. Both require huge outlays of capital that simply will not be there. The July TRAINS says the average age of the US locomotive fleet is 22 years. There will have to be a major outlay of capital that is available.One traditional advantage of steam is its much lower capital cost. That will mean a lot more, given the higher interest rates on the way, as opposed to artificially low mid-century rates. Furthermore, the railroads are having severe capacity problems on the one hand and have had to reduce freight train speeds in recent years because of fuel costs on the other. Even in mid-century the NYC Niagara was more powerful than a three unit E7 at 60 mph but cost less to operate. How about some pudding to prove something in?Which is why I propose a test of Class A 1218 and three current diesel units on a 7500 ton train.There have been scattered if not specific reports of the Class A hauling 7500 trains over 60 mph. Thre has been corroboration of that feat in this thead. That is the equivalent of 4 1/2 SD45s, considering that three SD45s can haul a 5000 ton train at 62 mph. Apparently this was commonly done in regular service. Let's see which can do what and at what cost. This is no toy department exercise.What does 1218 need? A flue job? How much will it cost to be restored to running condition? UP Challenger 3985 might be similarly tested, but it would be nowhere as instructive. It burns oil and has been fitted with a Lempor exhaust.Nothing wrong with the latter, but it does diminish the controlled experiment. 1218 is still pristine 1930s technology. Let's see what we have been missing all these years.Then let's figure what 1218 could do with a Porta/Wardale firebox, Lempor exhaust, poppet valves, etc. Again, this is no toy department exercise.  There is a lot at stake.
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