General Discussion (Model Railroader)

I WISH the future of model railroading included a model of every locomotive ever made. Good running, well detailed models of every locomotive you can think of...

The future of this forum should include no trolls.

simon1966 wrote:

I would suggest that the Craftsman is not vanishing from the hobby.  They may not be here on this forum, but there is a vibrant and thriving craftsman segment of this hobby.  The recent narrow gauge convention, which features many craftsmen, had a greater attendance than the NMRA convention.  There is a first annual Craftsman Structure Show coming up this fall.  http://www.craftsmanstructureshow.com/ Registration has been high to the extent that they are no longer accepting registrations for the hands on clinic.  As I have entered this new world I have been discovering that there are dozens of companies producing high quality craftsman style kits. I think the hobby will become more and more segmented and specialized. Cottage industries will serve these segments.  To an extent this has largely happened already.  Even the "Big Players" in DCC are small specialized companies. I don't have a clue what will happen with technology in the future, but I would suggest that at least for the next decade the craftsman segment of MRR will actually grow.

Yes, there are many more craftsman kits available than there was in the past. I also subscribe to Narrow Gauge and Shortline Gazette, Light Iron Digest, and Main Two Footers which feature alot of excellent scratchbuilding articles including tips for modeling obscure gauges and prototypes and have many ads for craftsman kits and cottage industries. I believe the hobby is already segmented and that this trend will continue in the future. Since I'm part of this realm I rely on many cottage industries and other specialized sources to fulfill my interests in narrow gauge modeling.

I know I gave the "silly" Terminator-parallel answer, but here's my serious response:

The future of model railroading is N scale.

Why?  Is it because I'm biased since I'm in N scale?  Maybe, but I was in HO for over 20 years before I converted to N for some compelling reasons.

Reasons why N scale is poised to become ever more popular:

1.  Newer homes...   Many have no basements.  Rooms in new homes (even the McMansions that have 3000+ square feet) tend to be smaller even though there are more of them.  Finding a spare bedroom greater than, say, 12x14 or 12x16 is difficult, and that's a limited space to model anything beyond shortline ops in HO or larger.

2.  Modern railroading...  We can debate all day about how many new model railroaders there will be 20 years from now, but it's a fair bet that many of them will be influenced by, and want to model, modern railroading.  It's far easier to accomplish a prototype-length train of autoracks or stack packs in N than it is in HO on a home layout.

3.  Greater choices...  Many people might consider N if only their favorite prototype were offered.  N scale product announcements have been fast and furious (although Model Railroader tends to ignore them).  The number of new N scale products actually delivered, though smaller, is still impressive.

4.  Better products...  DCC is becoming far more popular in N scale, and we've even started seeing sound in N (although its qualities are hotly contested).  New locos and cars are beautifully detailed and rival HO in accuracy.

I know that many people discount N simply because they "can't se it."  But its small size actually lets you sit back and absorb a full scene with a train moving through it, as you might as a railfan some distance from trackside, allowing the scene to dominate the train.

Dave Vollmer wrote:

I know I gave the "silly" Terminator-parallel answer, but here's my serious response: The future of model railroading is N scale. Why?  Is it because I'm biased since I'm in N scale?  Maybe, but I was in HO for over 20 years before I converted to N for some compelling reasons. Reasons why N scale is poised to become ever more popular: 1.  Newer homes...   Many have no basements.  Rooms in new homes (even the McMansions that have 3000+ square feet) tend to be smaller even though there are more of them.  Finding a spare bedroom greater than, say, 12x14 or 12x16 is difficult, and that's a limited space to model anything beyond shortline ops in HO or larger. 2.  Modern railroading...  We can debate all day about how many new model railroaders there will be 20 years from now, but it's a fair bet that many of them will be influenced by, and want to model, modern railroading.  It's far easier to accomplish a prototype-length train of autoracks or stack packs in N than it is in HO on a home layout. 3.  Greater choices...  Many people might consider N if only their favorite prototype were offered.  N scale product announcements have been fast and furious (although Model Railroader tends to ignore them).  The number of new N scale products actually delivered, though smaller, is still impressive. 4.  Better products...  DCC is becoming far more popular in N scale, and we've even started seeing sound in N (although its qualities are hotly contested).  New locos and cars are beautifully detailed and rival HO in accuracy. I know that many people discount N simply because they "can't se it."  But its small size actually lets you sit back and absorb a full scene with a train moving through it, as you might as a railfan some distance from trackside, allowing the scene to dominate the train.

I realize that the quality of N scale has vastly improved in the past 20 years, however, not everyone has the desire to model contemporary or mainline railroads (not that there's anything wrong with those). N is great for broad curves, vast scenic effects, and mainline modeling in any space. The larger scales have many assets for modeling shortlines, backwoods-type railroads, logging, narrow gauge and other small unusual prototypes or those who enjoy super detailing. As for space, it's true you need alot of it to model today's mainlines in the larger scales but there are other types of railroads that can be modeled in much smaller spaces - even in Large Scale. Modeling around the perimeter of a room allows for broad curves and is a much more efficient use of space as the room can be used for other activities.

Although HO will probably remain the majority scale, N scale will grow in popularity due to the vast improvements that are constantly being made. O scale (especially On30) and Large Scale narrow gauge (indoors, from a model railroading aspect) will also see more growth.

That's why I said "many," not "all."

I don't model modern railroading either; I model July 1956.  But it's hard to deny that kids born today will have less exposure, except via train museums and tourist lines, to railroading of yesteryear, while modern railroading is accessible everywhere.

My argument is that as we older modelers fade out, the new ones replacing us will probably be more likely to model modern ops.  That's one of the many reasons I think N will actually overtake HO in the future.

I know not everyone born with modern trains models them.  I was born in 1974 but I model transition era.  But because I have only seen transition era railroading in books and old movies, it's not as easy to capture in model form as it would be to model what I remember, like Conrail and Amtrak.

on30francisco wrote:

Although HO will probably remain the majority scale, N scale will grow in popularity due to the vast improvements that are constantly being made. O scale (especially On30) and Large Scale narrow gauge (indoors, from a model railroading aspect) will also see more growth.

A few friendly Points of Information, for all, are in order here.

Based on countless surveys conducted over the decades, the relative percentage of model railroaders devoted to N-gauge has not changed materially in more than 35 years. All the supposedly significant factors that would have favored its progressively increasing its percentage of the market, most of which having been claimed long ago, have played out already without any detectable change in N's status.

Railroading's Transition Era has been, by far, the most popular era to model for more than 50 years and, likewise, its percentage of the market has not altered markedly in all that time. Most modelers today never saw steam engines, E or F-units in operation, yet they model that era in their tens of thousands and the manufacturers pour out endless models from that period.

Modern prototype trains are all but invisible to today's society in nearly all parts of the county but particularly in urban areas, were the majority of today's individuals reside. Thus, they are even more unlikely to be a major influence of what folks model in the future. In fact, our hobby has become progressively about replicating an increasingly distant past and not the current or even relatively recent era! Modeling truly contemporary railroading is presently done by only a tiny fraction of hobbyists.  

On21/2 has and always will have a very narrow appeal among hobbyists by virtue of its prototypical roads and industrial applications being very limited in scope relative to other mainline roads and their diversity of purpose and operations. There has always been an On21/2 or On3 faction in the hobby but it was far less obvious because its participants had to model mainly with brass locos and rollingstock. Now its much cheaper to do so. However, there would be little reason to believe these scales will become any major segment of the hobby in the future since their appeal/application is much too narrow.

In a similar fashion, classic railroad "operations" has a rather limited appeal amongst hobbyists, in spite of what you may read in MR (for nearly 60 years the great "pusher" of the operations idea). No poll or survey has ever indicated that more than about 30% of hobbyist participate in that particular aspect of model railroading and most surveys suggest a percentage closer 20%, even less for the car card/timetable folks. For the great majority of hobbyists, model railroading is about simply running their trains as they please, not shuttling cars back and forth according to little cards, nor running fast freights against fast clocks and timetables.

Viable predictions of the future of the hobby (or anything else) need to be based on facts, not just wild speculation and wishes.

CNJ831

Dave Vollmer wrote:

I know I gave the "silly" Terminator-parallel answer, but here's my serious response: The future of model railroading is N scale. Why?  Is it because I'm biased since I'm in N scale?  Maybe, but I was in HO for over 20 years before I converted to N for some compelling reasons. Reasons why N scale is poised to become ever more popular: 1.  Newer homes...   Many have no basements.  Rooms in new homes (even the McMansions that have 3000+ square feet) tend to be smaller even though there are more of them.  Finding a spare bedroom greater than, say, 12x14 or 12x16 is difficult, and that's a limited space to model anything beyond shortline ops in HO or larger. 2.  Modern railroading...  We can debate all day about how many new model railroaders there will be 20 years from now, but it's a fair bet that many of them will be influenced by, and want to model, modern railroading.  It's far easier to accomplish a prototype-length train of autoracks or stack packs in N than it is in HO on a home layout. 3.  Greater choices...  Many people might consider N if only their favorite prototype were offered.  N scale product announcements have been fast and furious (although Model Railroader tends to ignore them).  The number of new N scale products actually delivered, though smaller, is still impressive. 4.  Better products...  DCC is becoming far more popular in N scale, and we've even started seeing sound in N (although its qualities are hotly contested).  New locos and cars are beautifully detailed and rival HO in accuracy. I know that many people discount N simply because they "can't se it."  But its small size actually lets you sit back and absorb a full scene with a train moving through it, as you might as a railfan some distance from trackside, allowing the scene to dominate the train.

Dave

N Scale rules

A close read of your post reveals the old N Mantra.  "With all the progress in N over the past 10 years, we are winning on all fronts."  It is really a tired argument.  Indeed, N scale has finally arrived at some level of acceptabilty.  However one cannot discount that HO, O and the other scales have in themselves achieved  remarkable improvements in quality, reliability, capability and progress that is nothing less than spectacular.  The bar is constantly moving and the old saying n-1 will likely always be true.   

I've seen John Widmar's truly amazing N scale railroad.  Magnificent.  It shows what can be done in 1/2 of a small garage over 20 years or so.  Truly a work of art.

But let us fast forward to the Train Shows of today.  I go to examine and watch the display railroads.  I have yet to see an N scale railroad (John Widmar's exception) that was memorable.   Ratio is about 3 to 1 HO over N.  The N scale fellows are typically putzing around trying to make it work, The HO guys are explaining to the crowd how to join their club or how they built something, or what something is. 

I can name 5 or 6 very high quality club layouts in Colorado, the Scottish Highland club (not sure of their name) is simply amazing.  The Greeley club, WOW, so much neat stuff I just cannot take it all in and I've seen it 4 or 5 times.  And there are three others that just impress the heck out of me each time I see them.   Oh, the N Scale layout at Caboose Hobbies is way cool too. But it is not my pick as 'best' of the 6 or 7 HI Q layouts there.  

Rationalize it however you will, but N Scale does not, from my view, dominate the healthy Model Railroad community in Colorado.  No way.

Home Size
A modeler will always overcome  space limitations one way or another.  While I have continiously expanded my own railroad, one could argue, rather convincingly that I'd be better off with a small and completed railroad.  I'm pretty sure that MOST single family homes in the Denver area have basements. Even many townhomes have basements.  But I grew up in Oklahoma where there were few, if any basements.  I got the room and am not going to apologize for it.  I'm thankful! 

Eras

MTH is moving into HO.  Interesting, what locomotives have they chosen?  STEAM.  And they are announcing more to come.  Let us cut to the chase here.  To me, even a tiny 0-4-0 dockside is more antimated and interesting to watch than any Diesel.  Steam is fun and interesting to watch, listen to, operate and tinker with.  Nothing wrong with Diesel, but steam engines are inately more interesting.  IMHO, this is the reason the transition era dominates and will continue to dominate.  Railroads like Durango-Silverton and the Straussburg in PA keep the steam image clearly centered in our heads. 

More choices?

Just exactly when did N overtake all other scales in product choice?  Will it someday?  Who knows? 

Better Products?

Better than the older N scale, certainly.  But better than the larger scales, exactly when did that happen?  Oh, you said they rival HO in accuracy.  Maybe, but I don't think so.

So far, the only place I've seen where N scale rules is on Trainboard. 

SO, is the future of Model Railroading to be N Scale? I don't know. But there is one fact that is inescapable, sometime between age 40 an 50 most people's eyesight begins to deteriorate.  

Dave, I do very much appreciate your loyalty, skill and accomplishments, please I mean nothing personal.

High regards,

Joe

Just my 2 cents, never worth more! 

CNJ831 wrote:

A few friendly Points of Information, for all, are in order here....On21/2 has and always will have a very narrow appeal among hobbyists by virtue of its prototypical roads and industrial applications being very limited in scope relative to other mainline roads and their diversity of purpose and operations...

marknewton wrote:

CNJ831 wrote: A few friendly Points of Information, for all, are in order here....On21/2 has and always will have a very narrow appeal among hobbyists by virtue of its prototypical roads and industrial applications being very limited in scope relative to other mainline roads and their diversity of purpose and operations... Hmm, another friendly point of information and a comment is warranted here. Prototype 30" railways of all types and sizes, up to and including mainline systems, were common everywhere in the world except North America. When you make statements like this, you display a very parochial view of modelling. On30 is becoming very popular here in Australia because we have well-known prototypes to inspire modellers. Cheers, Mark.

My thoughts on this subject.

I my self am not sure what the feature holds.

I model in N-scale and have done so since 1971 or so, I did have an interest in HO while in my teens but lost interest and got into auto sports.

When it comes to which scale is best, there is no one better than the other in my opinion as they are all great.

When attending shows I look at all clubs / scales with operating layouts and talk with all.

As I said my scale is "N" not because of space limitations but because I like the challenge it (as well as the others) offer, my time frame is the transition era so that I can run steam as well as diesel locos.

I would venture to guess that as younger people get involved in the hobby they will model what they are familiar with in their area, locos and rolling stock that they see, it is only natural and in the end there will be a lack of steam as the younger people of the later decades will not even know what a steam loco is because they did not have an opportunity to see one in action as most of us have.

I follow several forums and see that the average age is about 40 to 55 years with a few of us under and over that age group, and we can remember or have rode on excursion trains that were pulled by a steam loco. 

Actually, Dave almost has it right.  Only problem is, he's looking at the wrong prototype country!  (How good is your Nihon-go, Dave?)

Joe-Daddy got it right when he observed that steam (except for the Jawn Henry and the C&O turbine disasters) is visually more interesting than diesel - churning siderods will always out-draw static truck frames.  (The boiler side of a Shay is bo-o-oring!)

If people really model what they see, why aren't there more modelers of present-day light rail and rapid transit operations?  MisterBeasley is definitely a minority player, albiet an inspiring one.

Yes, as a percentage of a wide and diverse total, serious operators are almost certainly a minority.  So are serious poker players.  Most people settle for penny-ante with family and friends.  A few get serious in illegal games, or legally join the World Poker Challenge, and then end up running a table at a Las Vegas casino for pay, benefits and an eventual pension.  That 20% (or less, if you throw in rigid adherence to a timetable) who operate their model railroads are the ones who keep the hobby visible and interesting, to themselves and to others.  I, personally, prefer being on the cutting edge to being buried in the mass of the blade.

I suspect that the total number of model railroaders will remain relatively static, which means a decline as a percentage of a growing population.  Unlike others, I don't see that as a potential disaster.  The buying power of model railroaders will increase even if the body count holds steady.  A lot of the indicators used to deduce a decline in numbers are much more indicative of a shift in sources for information and products as more of us (myself included) rely more on electronic sources and less on brick-and-mortar stores and hardcopy publishers.

So, what does the future hold?  Not much different from the present as far as serious modeling is concerned.  Fewer toy trains at Christmas, but just as many youngsters "infected" by parents, grandparents and adult neighbors.  A very slow shift toward the latest and greatest (anyone giving odds about who will first offer a genset loco?) and a continued interest in superdetailed modeling of prototypes the modeler has never seen.

It could be a LOT worse!

Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - for the forseeable future)

marknewton wrote:

CNJ831 wrote: A few friendly Points of Information, for all, are in order here....On21/2 has and always will have a very narrow appeal among hobbyists by virtue of its prototypical roads and industrial applications being very limited in scope relative to other mainline roads and their diversity of purpose and operations... Hmm, another friendly point of information and a comment is warranted here. Prototype 30" railways of all types and sizes, up to and including mainline systems, were common everywhere in the world except North America. When you make statements like this, you display a very parochial view of modelling. On30 is becoming very popular here in Australia because we have well-known prototypes to inspire modellers. Cheers, Mark.

Parochial view or not, Mark, the members of this forum are at least 98% North American modelers and as such, one would have to assume that the discussion at hand has been in regard to what will or may happen in the hobby's future here...a portion of the globe where 24", 30", even 36" prototypes, were always in extremely limited and very specific-use operations at anytime during the past three-quarters of a century. While many of us are well aware that the narrower gauges were/are common throughout the rest of the world, as one can see by the content of these posts, modeling of them, or addressing the prototype gauges of European, Asian, Australian, et al. rail operations, were never even as much as an after thought consideration concerning where the modeling hobby might be going. No offense meant but that is the fact. I expect that the hobby's future will unfold in a very different manner overseas, where trains are much more the norm.

CNJ831 

joe-daddy wrote:

But let us fast forward to the Train Shows of today.  I go to examine and watch the display railroads.  I have yet to see an N scale railroad (John Widmar's exception) that was memorable.   Ratio is about 3 to 1 HO over N.  The N scale fellows are typically putzing around trying to make it work, The HO guys are explaining to the crowd how to join their club or how they built something, or what something is.

That's possibly becaue you never saw my layout at a show.  If you're in Raleigh, NC, first weekend in November, you're welcome to stop by and see an N scale layout that works (mine).

joe-daddy wrote:

More choices? Just exactly when did N overtake all other scales in product choice?  Will it someday?  Who knows?  Better Products? Better than the older N scale, certainly.  But better than the larger scales, exactly when did that happen?  Oh, you said they rival HO in accuracy.  Maybe, but I don't think so.

I didn't mean either; you misinterpreted.  I meant that N scale choices are improving (more choices over previous N scale) and that the product quality of N is improving.

Again, if you don't want to believe N scale can rival HO in accuracy, you're welcome to visit my layout and its PRR-specific prototype equipment, much of which I built myself.

As for the basement argument, as a US Air Force officer who's been stationed all over the country (and world) I can say you'd be shocked at how many parts of the country don't have basements as standard.  Here in central North Carolina my realtor said it's less than 10%.  In Florida, obviously, none of the houses had basements.

BTW, the Strasburg Rail Road in PA is a few miles from my family's ancestral home, and the Railroad Museum of Pennsylvania across the street (not affiliated with the SRR) is why I model PRR in the steam era.

I agree that I may be off in my prediction regarding the appeal of modern versus transition era, but I'm sensing your bias against N is leading you to make some incorrect assumptions regarding what can and is being done in N, and falls, whether you meant it to or not, as a tacit dig at my work.

N scale has arrived at more than some level of acceptibility.  I invite you to view my video layout tour:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veEvKHFGd5s

I think that the N vs HO argument is based on what prototype and era one wants to model. I don't think that I will ever see the range of steam engines that is available in HO being made for the N gauge Market. I certainly never expect to see the R3, L1, I-4 and I-5 steamers native to the New Haven. And definitely not the EF-1, EF-3, EP-2 or EP-3 box cab electrics. We New Haven modelers have had enough of a fight to get them produced in HO gauge. For a New Haven modeler, N Gauge is a tough nut to crack, but I have friends doing it with what is available, but not to the extent that I can in HO. I recently sent an ABBA lashup of N Alco F units to one of them who had helped me so much with my research.

If you want to model so called modern era railroading, free lance or prototype, with long trains and multi diesel unit lashups then N probably is a better option. But personally, I would last about an hour watching a 60 car double stack pulled by 6 diesels go around and around. No station stops, no switching, no RAILROADING.

Not for me.