General Discussion (Model Railroader)

Me!

All the teenagers will be old, thats what I foresee :D 

Gandy Dancer wrote:

CNJ831 wrote: Sorry, Dancer, but those 1979 Blue Box Athearns were, at the time, the hobby standard against which all other products were measured, warts and all. They were the top-of-the-line production item, as good as it got over the counter. If you wanted better, you had to rework them yourself. Hmmm... Not that I don't understand your point, but I have to disagree and say I've never considered the Athearn Blue box to be top of the line.  Atlas had them beat hands down with Roco drive, Hobby Town had can motors and the centrifugal clutch system, even the Model Power E units had those massive can motors by then.  It wasn't until GSB announce their "bull dog" drive for the SD40 that Athearn improved the Blue box line to try to contend for top-of-the-line, but then Atlas trumped them with the Kato drive.

In point of fact, in 1979 Hobbytown of Boston was such a minor player in the hobby as to be largely unknown to the majority of hobbyists. They were mentioned by a few hobbyist in MR occasionally but they appear to have largely been a word of mouth product. They certainly didn't advertise what they had available in the way of motive power in the hobby press. And while their mechanisms could indeed "pull down the walls", that was largely all they offered. What few customers bought them assembled completed units with other company's shells, so they can't be called an individual product.

Model Power's E's were nice too, but outside of that one item, their products were considered junk. One loco, of very limited appeal, does not make a state-of-the-art standard. If it did, you could certainly find obscure, singular items today (especially European) that are decidely superior to the accepted best general runs of ours today. For detail, if you want to see "plastic brass", they really do have it. 

I will agree that Atlas had started to introduce some nice running diesels at that point. However, their availability and selection was still quite limited...just check the hobbyshop/mail order dealers' listings of the day and see how very few carried Atlas (I found almost none early in the year!). I think that Hobbies For Men, in Beacon, NY, may have been the first major retailer (beyond Atlas themselves) to give the product any ad space.

In 1979 the standards in the hobby were Athearn, MDC, Bowser, Mantua, and AHM. Of these, by shear volume and reputation, Athearn would have to be considered as far and away the leader and "state-of-the art" among what was available in a complete line of HO motive power and to which everything else was to be compared. If you ran diesels back then, odds were at least 25:1 that they were made by Athearn.

CNJ831   

IRONROOSTER wrote:

I don't think the true craftsman has disappeared (remember when he was the guy who bought castings and strip wood as opposed to kits?

No, I agree he hasn't disappeared.  However the population of craftsmen is declining, and I think rapidly. I think he will disappear sooner or later.

IRONROOSTER wrote:

- What has shrunk are the guys who used to built kits because that's all there was (RTR being too toyish and/or poorly operating).  With the advent of good and high quality RTR that costs less than Brass and only a small amount more than kits, no one has to build if they don't want to. And it turns out that a lot of folks want a model railroad but don't have the desire or time to build all the components.

Gandy Dancer wrote:

A real person has to manually go to the car and pull the uncoupling handle.  They cannot sit up in a tower somewhere and push a button to uncouple where ever they want. In fact, our automatic coupling when we press cars up against each other isn't too prototypical either.  In real life a person has to manually go and open the coupler (more like the Lionel or Sargents brand couplers) and connect the brake hose.

Now I know you're not suggesting someone invent a tiny little android person/brakeman/engineer to go around coupling & uncoupling our cars are you?  Maybe running our tiny little live steam units built in N scale according to our giant wims and jumping off to run and switch a turnout just for prototypical realism.

 All I was trying to say is I don't want to reach into my artificial scene to use a bamboo skewer to uncouple my cars.  I'm modeling in N-scale and my giant fingers fumbling around in that little scene just doesn't do it for me on the realism side.  I think it would be much more realistic if I could punch in a code and tell the car to uncouple itself just as if that tiny little guy had done it. 

I do think automatic uncoupling is possible its just a matter of making it practical.

 Technology-wise,  DCC still the standard for command control, but the decoders will have power capacitors to hold a charge to run the locomotive over dirty track (Lenz is using this now). I predict that someone will have a DCC system that is simply a program on your PC with an interface to the track boosters, and you will be able to use a cell phone as a wireless throttle. You will also be able to see the view from the locomotive cab mini-cam on your cell phone screen as you run the train.

    Sound will be standard even in low end train set locomotives. 

    The NMRA will finally adopt an HO scale knuckle coupler standard which will still not be near as good as Kadee's.

    Model RR only LHS's will likely disappear. Only the largest retailers in the big cities will remain, with most of the smaller businesses going to internet sales. One of the big-box retailers may add a hobby section to their stores, at best, carrying strictly RTR. There will be more small scale home industries making and selling limited run models and kits, again on the internet.

    John 

jfallon wrote:

I predict that someone will have a DCC system that is simply a program on your PC with an interface to the track boosters,

and you will be able to use a cell phone as a wireless throttle.

jfallon wrote:

snip Model RR only LHS's will likely disappear. Only the largest retailers in the big cities will remain, with most of the smaller businesses going to internet sales. One of the big-box retailers may add a hobby section to their stores, at best, carrying strictly RTR. There will be more small scale home industries making and selling limited run models and kits, again on the internet.     John

It is interesting that people write off the LHS now and in the future.  Denver has TWO of the best hobby shops in the entire US, maybe even the world!  And that is fact.  Caboose is always busy, Sunday morning, Tuesday afternoon, perhaps they are slow during the Bronco games but I doubt that too.  And they are my favorite web place too!  AN Don's in Greeley is nothing to dismiss either!

Everyone thought that Wally Mart would destroy the hardware and lumber yards.  Not a chance, HD and Lowes thrive, I have THREE Lowes very close to me and a FOURTH is about to rise out of the ground 2 miles from the house.

Model railroading is typically an old man's hobby, and I am certainly following into that mold. The boomers are heading into the last turn.  Will these high tech, toy loving, well healed fellows migrate to the model railroad hobby?  Certainly some will.  

I am optimistic, the hobby will continue to florish, attract new hobbyists and the demand for stuff will remain strong.  That means someone must sell the goods.  Take Ebay out of the picture and tell me an exciting web hobby shop to visit, something that will captivate me like an hour at Mizells or the Caboose.  Don't even bother trying to tell me there is one, I've visited them all and nothing fulfills like seeing the wall of trains or the brass case. Nothing.

Only my 2 cents, never worth an extra penny!

Joe 

DCC is the wave of today, however in a few years, as batteries inprove and get smaller, I'd like to see wireless controlled battery powered locomotives that can run for an hour or more on one charge.

Loco's would be "refueled" on charging track(s).  These could be at diesel refueling facilities or coaling towers and would be fully automatic quick charging, say less than five real time minutes.

Imagine, wireless "DCC" with no power to the tracks, no wiring issues, no rail gaps, no reverse loop wiring, no turntable wiring, no need for isolating blocks, all rail switches with all metal parts inculding tie bars, no short circuits through poor wiring, no short circuits due to trailing through a switch, no shorts due to wheels touching the backs of switch blades, no power blocks, no "boosters" etc., etc..  The advantages of battery power are endless.

GTX765 wrote:

oleirish wrote: I think It will be radio control even in the "N" scale.Think about It??no wires under the lay out,no block controls,ECT,ECT.radio is getting smaller everyday!It is allredy used in "G" scale,and some "O" scale,"HO" is close allso at the present. JIM How would the radio control work? You would need a some very nice electronics in the engines. The R/C hobby cars are far more pricy when it comes to the electronics and radio controlled systems. Would the engines run on a battery then? Just wondering, I have not seen any trains yet with R/C and wondered if it was the same as R/C cars.

I predict that it won't be batteries, but miniature fuel cells that will power our future locos.  There will also be wireless DCC.  Hey, maybe each car will have wireless technology to control their couplers as well?

So now there will be no need for cleaning track, and it can be made out of cheaper materials.  Also add that traction tires can be more extensively used on locos, so they will be able to haul more without fear of compromising electrical/signal pickup (since there will be none).

Probably something that will happen more than 25 years from now.  But I have read that computer makers are aggressively pursuing fuel cell technology for laptop PCs.  They want to do away with batteries altogether because fuel cells will outlast them and weigh much less.  Several other industries are also trying to develop fuel cells to replace batteries in various equipment that is currently battery operated.   

joe-daddy wrote:

jfallon wrote:    snip Model RR only LHS's will likely disappear. Only the largest retailers in the big cities will remain, with most of the smaller businesses going to internet sales. One of the big-box retailers may add a hobby section to their stores, at best, carrying strictly RTR. There will be more small scale home industries making and selling limited run models and kits, again on the internet.     John  It is interesting that people write off the LHS now and in the future.  Denver has TWO of the best hobby shops in the entire US, maybe even the world!  And that is fact.  Caboose is always busy, Sunday morning, Tuesday afternoon, perhaps they are slow during the Bronco games but I doubt that too.  And they are my favorite web place too!  AN Don's in Greeley is nothing to dismiss either! Everyone thought that Wally Mart would destroy the hardware and lumber yards.  Not a chance, HD and Lowes thrive, I have THREE Lowes very close to me and a FOURTH is about to rise out of the ground 2 miles from the house. Model railroading is typically an old man's hobby, and I am certainly following into that mold. The boomers are heading into the last turn.  Will these high tech, toy loving, well healed fellows migrate to the model railroad hobby?  Certainly some will.   I am optimistic, the hobby will continue to florish, attract new hobbyists and the demand for stuff will remain strong.  That means someone must sell the goods.  Take Ebay out of the picture and tell me an exciting web hobby shop to visit, something that will captivate me like an hour at Mizells or the Caboose.  Don't even bother trying to tell me there is one, I've visited them all and nothing fulfills like seeing the wall of trains or the brass case. Nothing. Only my 2 cents, never worth an extra penny!   Joe

As far as LHSs go, Caboose Hobbies is the exception rather than the norm. Most cities, even some large ones, either have no LHS or skimpily stocked, poorly-ran ones which makes online ordering a must. If it wasn't for places like Caboose Hobbies, and had to rely strictly on our LHSs, my modeling would be severely limited. I believe tmany smaller LHSs will be going the way of the 8 track while places like Caboose, Trainworld and other shops that are up-to-date with online ordering will prosper.

When HDTV becomes the law a huge amount of band width will become available with no interference on it. The FCC plans to auction it off. Experts are forecasting that this event will make all kinds of broadcast applications possible that were not heretofore.

With 15 volt AC on the tracks, and diodes in the engine for conversion to DC, radio control will be a reality. An alternative will be batteries recharged by DC track current which can be at 3 volts to operate LEDS and recharge batteries (2 1.5 V cells). Any thing is possible when the electronic geniuses put there mind to it.

DC was a big improvement over AC. 12 volts was a big improvement over 6 volts. DCC was another step up. We just don't know yet where UP really is.

But I am betting it will be a big improvement over DCC and will be compatible with both DC and DCC equipped engines. The track can then be blocked for signalling and crossing controls, etc. without regard to the control system.

I would suggest that the Craftsman is not vanishing from the hobby.  They may not be here on this forum, but there is a vibrant and thriving craftsman segment of this hobby.  The recent narrow gauge convention, which features many craftsmen, had a greater attendance than the NMRA convention.  There is a first annual Craftsman Structure Show coming up this fall.  http://www.craftsmanstructureshow.com/ Registration has been high to the extent that they are no longer accepting registrations for the hands on clinic.  As I have entered this new world I have been discovering that there are dozens of companies producing high quality craftsman style kits.

I think the hobby will become more and more segmented and specialized. Cottage industries will serve these segments.  To an extent this has largely happened already.  Even the "Big Players" in DCC are small specialized companies.

I don't have a clue what will happen with technology in the future, but I would suggest that at least for the next decade the craftsman segment of MRR will actually grow.

In the future, I suspect that DCC will become ubiquitous, with the systems getting more powerful and yet smaller, and moreover, simpler and ever-more user friendly.  And probably less expensive.  That's always been the way with technology.  And kids growing up today are growing up in a tech-heavy world....there won't be as much aversion to it.  Instead of 20% of MR's being in DCC, like today, it will be more like 80%. 

I also think that N will become the new HO.  N offers greater scale for layouts and greater ability to run, in a smaller space, the longer freight cars of today, the ones that kids are growing up seeing.  And N products will grow in quantity and detail. 

And I speak this as someone who is dedicated to HO, and who is pretty technologically challenged at times. 

Advertisers will work with publishers to build 'purchase account options' priced directly into subscriptions. A reader will then be allowed to scan a product barcode in the magazine from their living room via wireless technology --- and the item ordered will be processed and shipped with no further action by the subscriber. Easy shopping!