General Discussion (Model Railroader)

Gandy Dancer wrote:

justincase65 wrote: I don't think DCC can handle that many decoders at a time on a layout particularly the larger layouts with hundreds of cars to program. ???? Where did you get an idea like that????  Current DCC systems can handle 9999 decoder addresses.  jusincase65 wrote: With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done. What I don't understand is why one would want that, very unprototypical.

I don't have a DCC system yet and wasn't aware that they could handle that many decoders.  Thanks for the insight.

 Secondly, what do you mean unprototypical?  Like using a bamboo skewer is a protypical way of uncoupling cars?

Some will scratchbuild

Some will buy RTR

Some will run holographic layouts driven by a laser ball on the ceiling and laptop

And others will complain it is to hard to scratch build, expensive to by RTR and think it is too  complicated to learn how to link the laser ball and the laptop.

And Bergie's grandson will be trying to catch the troll. . .

Joe 

Gandy Dancer wrote:

Any economic factor I can come up with results in cheaper models of higher quality.  I think the real issue is no one is willing to settle for comparable products.  Everyone wants to compare the new top quality stuff to the old run of the mill stuff.  That is just not a reasonible comparison.  Holding one's model expectations constant, the prices have come down through the years.

Sorry, Dancer, but those 1979 Blue Box Athearns were, at the time, the hobby standard against which all other products were measured, warts and all. They were the top-of-the-line production item, as good as it got over the counter. If you wanted better, you had to rework them yourself.

Now were they comparable in fidelity, detail and electrical technology to today's top-of-the-line? Of course not! Who could ever expect them to be? Time doesn't stand still. There are little things like progress and the advance of technology that intervene. Just look at the late 1970's pocket calculator vs. today's home computers. Hasn't there been a bit of an advancement there, or for any other of today's products you'd care to name? Like it or not, you have to compare the top-of-the-line, mass produced items of each period against one another in price to fairly judge the situation.

And since I go back way before 1979, I can tell you with considerable assurance that the hobby, overall, is currently the most expensive it has ever been since the mid to late 1950's. The real bargin years in model railroading were between the late 1960's and the early 1980's, when pricing remained almost flat over that long period. Judging by what I seen in the past decade, you're never likely to see that happen again!

CNJ831

Greg H. wrote:

IIRC didn't the old GE Astrac system run on 24 volt AC? I think I remember a comment by Allen McClelland where he said that the higher voltage made contact problems pretty rare, but if you forgot and laid put your bare hand on the track (it was constant voltage) you'd know it! George I don't know. I thought the article was talking about 24 V DC but DC could cause some safety issues.   I can see where 24 V AC could be better suited to such an application, and as far as safety is concerned would probably be better I have never been bitten by 24 V AC, but, I have been by 120 V AC, when I was taking a plug from a socket and my fingers had slipped a little to far forward and bridged the gap - not something I would want to do again but it was survivable for the amount of time it took to remind me to be more careful - I imagine that 24 V AC would be more so, just a good bite to remind you to be careful. I would think that directional control is probably a PITA with AC as compared with DC.

Greg 

I couldn't swear it was AC, but I'm sure about the 24 volts. It was quite a while ago that I saw it and haven't been able to find it since.

George 

The responses to the initial question here seem to fit onto the following categories:

1. Demographics & population size of the future modeling community.

2. Economics (specifically, expense) of pursuing the hobby

3. Technology options we might see.

I am going to skip #3, since I am really not "into" DCC and those advanced things (which is somewhat surprising in view of my technological background! My biggest investment in model electronics is: I love highway crossing flashers)

Since my day job is teaching strategy to executives, I offer some observations on #1 and #2.

Regarding #1, I think there is a lot of concern about decreasing population of modelers. I haven't seen any credible, professionally obtained data showing the age distribution of the model railroading community today compared to, say, 30 years ago. However, I see some evidence suggesting that the bigwigs in the hobby are concerned about this. Perhaps the biggest piece of evidence is Model Railroader's ongoing "WGH" campaign which must be costing Kalmbach significant $$$ and is, in my opinion, unquestionably being done because they desperately see a need to attract some new blood.

One category of modeler that is disappearing for sure is the true craftsman. I see a large trend away from kits of any kind, into "open up the box and put the contents in place." Here's one dramatic example: Who'd have thunk 20 years ago that you'd see the variety of pre-built plastic structures that are around today?

Regarding #2, yes, everything's getting more expensive. One reason is that the modeling community is getting more demanding about the fine points of fidelity of everything they see. That fidelity costs ya. The other reason is the big shift in production strategies, to 1) larger variety, and 2) smaller run sizes. Everyone must understand that those two parameters have to go together. Strategists have invented the term "mass customization" to describe this phenomenon. Advances in design and manufacturing technology, plus the ability to off-shore production, are making this possible; but it inexorably drives prices up. Yes, I like to buy American too --- I drive a Buick --- but I'm afraid the off-shoring is a necessary piece of this strategic puzzle.

Dave Vollmer wrote:

In 2032, a new model railroad control system (an over-the-air control and power system) called SkyNet will become self-aware.  It will then launch a nuclear strike against humankind, ushering in the rise of the machines and a long, devistating war for the survival of humanity.  The resistance will be led by a model railroader named John Conner. "Hasta la vista, baby!"

Classic Dave, when I got to "Skynet" I knew were you were going. 

Dave Vollmer wrote:

In 2032, a new model railroad control system (an over-the-air control and power system) called SkyNet will become self-aware.  It will then launch a nuclear strike against humankind, ushering in the rise of the machines and a long, devistating war for the survival of humanity.  The resistance will be led by a model railroader named John Conner. "Hasta la vista, baby!"

No, this will be more like one of those "Benevolent Dictatorships" some of us learned about in high school.  RailNet will impose a surcharge on something like your electric bill, and use it to fund a program in which Internet model dealers would receive orders to send trains out to non-modellers.  Everyone would start getting trains delivered, and suddenly the whole planet would be seething with layouts in every scale.  The problems of the Middle East would be forgotten as the Isrealis and Hamas would compete for the best pictures on Weekend Photo Fun, which might have to be shifted to midweek to avoid various Sabbaths and so forth.  China would have to out-source Model Railroad production to the United States to keep up with production demands.  Global Warming fears would diminish as people forsake their cars for train travel.  Apple will come out with the iTrain.

Seriously?  Well, I see more and better engine-cams.  After building a layout, modellers will run their trains from another room, watching the scenery through video cameras in front of the engine.

Being realistic, the level of detail and smoothness of operation will go up, track will be made better so there are fewer derailments, DCC will be less expensive as it gets more common, as will sound, the quality of sound systems will be better, there will be more readily available scenery products hopefully at lower prices, and Horizon will discontinue all Athearn kits.

Now for a little more fun, everything will have in-duh-vidual self-sustaining power supplies, operation will be controlled by a thinking cap with a little blinking light on top, modern trains will be magnetically levitated, P2K will be the Tyco of the railroad world while Model Power will dominate with their amazing quality and detail, engines and cars will have artificial intelligence so they know not to derail, 75% of the world population will be model railroaders, so prices will be reduced significantly ($12 for a PCM Big Boy), and so many other things.

I just checked my crystal ball. You wouldn't believe how things have changed twenty years from now.  Here are a few highlights.

1. People are complaining about the price of new equipment.

2. Older modelers are talking about how things were better twenty years ago.

3.  Some folks are talking about how the hobby is declining.

4.  Others are discussing what the future of the hobby is.

Looking ahead over the next 25 years, I think the following will happen:

DCC will become standard probably with upgraded standards.  It will be cheaper, easier, and a basic board will come installed on locomotives.  Upgrade plugins with better/more controls and sound will be available.  The throttle will be wireless either to the dcc base station or to the board in the locomotive, users option.

Computer interface and programs will be available to enable full operations with the computer taking all the roles that humans aren't available for - running trains, dispatching, etc. as needed.

RTR will continue to surge, but towards the end of 25 years will decline a little due to high cost of labor overseas.  

On demand kits/RTR will be available so that you can have the model of your choice.  The technology will still be somewhat expensive limiting it's market.  This will change going further ahead. 

Lionel will be making better giraffe cars.

Todays' 30 year olds will sit around saying the hobby's not like it used to be.  These young people don't know what it was like in the good ol days.

Enjoy

Paul 

Tom Curtin wrote:

Since my day job is teaching strategy to executives, I offer some observations on #1 and #2. Regarding #1, I think there is a lot of concern about decreasing population of modelers. I haven't seen any credible, professionally obtained data showing the age distribution of the model railroading community today compared to, say, 30 years ago. However, I see some evidence suggesting that the bigwigs in the hobby are concerned about this. Perhaps the biggest piece of evidence is Model Railroader's ongoing "WGH" campaign which must be costing Kalmbach significant $$$ and is, in my opinion, unquestionably being done because they desperately see a need to attract some new blood.

Tom, WGH is by no means simply MR's/Kalmbach's project. The five year WGH campaign is sponsored by members of the HMA...to the initial tune of over a million contributed dollars and I'm not sure they haven't coughed up more, recently. Kalmbach is only a minor player in the grand scheme of this effort to drum up new blood. However, when you look at their actual stated goals, foremost isn't to encourage younger people into the hobby. To the contrary, their stated target is men 45 to 64...the potential biggest spenders. Never in past hobby history has the industry ever felt its future so threatened that it even gave a thought to such a program as WGH. That says a lot right there.

CNJ831 

justincase65 wrote:

gandy dancer wrote:  jusincase65 wrote: With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done. What I don't understand is why one would want that, very unprototypical. Secondly, what do you mean unprototypical?  Like using a bamboo skewer is a protypical way of uncoupling cars?

In fact, our automatic coupling when we press cars up against each other isn't too prototypical either.  In real life a person has to manually go and open the coupler (more like the Lionel or Sargents brand couplers) and connect the brake hose.

CNJ831 wrote:

Sorry, Dancer, but those 1979 Blue Box Athearns were, at the time, the hobby standard against which all other products were measured, warts and all. They were the top-of-the-line production item, as good as it got over the counter. If you wanted better, you had to rework them yourself.

Tom Curtin wrote:

... One category of modeler that is disappearing for sure is the true craftsman. I see a large trend away from kits of any kind, into "open up the box and put the contents in place." Here's one dramatic example: Who'd have thunk 20 years ago that you'd see the variety of pre-built plastic structures that are around today? ...

I don't think the true craftsman has disappeared (remember when he was the guy who bought castings and strip wood as opposed to kits? - remember when "craftsman" kits were more than assembling a plastic jigsaw puzzle?).  I think he is doing just fine. 

What has shrunk are the guys who used to built kits because that's all there was (RTR being too toyish and/or poorly operating).  With the advent of good and high quality RTR that costs less than Brass and only a small amount more than kits, no one has to build if they don't want to.

And it turns out that a lot of folks want a model railroad but don't have the desire or time to build all the components. 

I know that I don't have the time. I have been accumulating kits and parts for retirement in a couple of years, but at the moment I use RTR where I can because I want to get the railroad going.  Which, come to think of it, is like a giant kit.

Enjoy

Paul 

Gandy Dancer wrote:

loathar wrote: I hope it doesn't advance too much more. I get tired of things getting so expensive that I can't afford them anymore. I really really really do not understand this.  Things are SO relatively cheap now compared to what they used to be and they are better to boot.  A most simple example - in 1979 an Athearn Blue Box GP9 cost me $18 street price.  The detail was terrible with a way wide hood and it sucked 2.5 amps on start up.  Now an Athearn RTR RS-3 retails for $90 with a street price of about $50.  Lets see, as I recall minimum wage was $2.10 back then, so it took me 8.5 hours of work to make enough money for the loco.   Now depending on which state one lives the minimum wage is an average of $7.  So it now it only takes 7.1 hours of work to earn a similar Athearn locomotive.  And that is a much better locomotive.  Better looking, better running, and consumes much less power. Any economic factor I can come up with results in cheaper models of higher quality.  I think the real issue is no one is willing to settle for comparable products.  Everyone wants to compare the new top quality stuff to the old run of the mill stuff.  That is just not a reasonible comparison.  Holding one's model expectations constant, the prices have come down through the years.   And to stay on topic, I believe that will be the trend into the future.  There will be much better and more variation of models produced.  The high end models will will continue to raise the bar on what is expected.  People unwilling to be satisfied with what they used to have will gripe because things are getting too expensive, but those will be the same people that blast the old things like brass track, locos without can motors & fly wheels, DC, and other things that are being put down today.   I am certain there are model railroaders out there that are more satisfied with, have more fun, and enjoy their "toy train" layouts much more than some of those with all the most modern, top of the line, and trendy things available in the hobby today.

Some things are getting pricier in this hobby. I'm not ranting about RTR locos or rolling stock as the quality and detailing are supurb compared to what was available twenty years ago. Since I do a lot of scratchbuilding and am not interested in the latest gadgets or fads, save for high quality RTR locos, my costs used to be minimal. I've noticed a trend in the pricing of dedicated detail parts and other supplies such as stripwood and especially paints. The prices are going through the roof! The prices on dedicated stripwood and paints has almost doubled in a few years and probably will continue this trend in the near future. Since I model in Large Scale and On30, I can use the dimensional stripwood, artists acrylics, and many other supplies available at discount craft stores at prices much lower than most LHSs. I don't fault the LHSs because they have to make a living and charge Walthers MSRP, however, with the many alternative online and discount stores, they will have a much harder time competing for our hobby funds.  The trend for inflated prices will probably continue but modelers should try to utilize other sources for supplies whenever possible.