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A few days ago, there was a thread that had a chicken little doom and gloom prediction about model railraoding. While I disagree with it. I do have something that I would like to share about and let you all chew it over and think aobut. I read an interesting statistic some time ago. Where I glomed onto it has long since faded away into the neirther reagons of my swiss cheese brain. But we can safely assume that it was a model railroading magazine. What I remember is this. 1/2 of all model railroads that are ever built are 32 square feet or less (So we are looking at something like 4X8s and 4X6s and shelf layouts) 2/3s of the remainder fall between 32 and 100 square feet. with average being about 64 square feet. (So we are looking at 4X8 with an added branch up to spare bedroom size) Only the remaining 1/6 of model railroads that are ever built are the often showcased and prenially desired for "Basement Empire" be it wheather they are actually in a basement, or other places like garages, attics, or even their own special building. I do not remember if this covered club layouts as well or just home layouts. But I think that even if we include club layouts these numbers would still be pretty accurate. As for model railroading being a declining hobby. I think the jury is still out. While model railroading since the start of the worlds greatest hobby campaign has in my opinion taken direct aim at the baby boomer generation as they have not only the money, but the time to take up this hobby and pursue it as well. Many of my freinds who live in metroplitan areas and can do things like go to GATS shows tell me that a large majority of the people in attendance are people in their 30s and they are with their excited and enthusiastic kids. So are we in a decline? Maybe we are. But I also know history has a tendency to repeat itself. I have read that the 1960s was a very tough time to be in model railroading as it seemed that Athearn, Walthers, Mantua/Tyco, Atlas, and Bowser/English/Penn Line (By that time all owned by the english family, but marketed under their own brandnames still) were just about all you had for model railroad suppliers. I am sure when I am in my 50s Model railroading will still be around. And It will be as strong as it ever has been. And those eager and enthusiastic kids are doing things like "Modeling Norfok Southern's former PRR New York Chicago Main line as it appeared at the late great date of 2009." The part that bugs me most though, is that when they do that. Every thing comes packaged in a neat handy little box. Woodland Scenics will probably figure out a sure fire benchwork system. (Or their Modu-Rail system will take off like wild fire) Locomotive and Cars will all be ready to run and DCC equipped. A DCC system will be in every new train set sold. Buidlings will all be preassembled and lighted. And the only thing left that you will actually have to do for your self, is form the scenery contours as that system has been simplified just about as far as it can go at this point in time. And the people like me, who actually build their locomotives will be an endangered species. Locomotive and freight car kits will be long gone. And rebuilding discarded old locomotives (Perhaps maybe because the decoder fried?) will be just about the only way people like me can get thier building fix. So model railroading I feel has a long and healthy future as much as I can forsee. Its just going to shift to more of an open the box and set it on the layout mentality similar to what you see that has been the tradition of toy trains. I hope I have not bored you, and I apoligise if I have offended anyone as that was not my intent. James
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