Edit post

Edit your reply below.

Post Body
Enter your post below.
[quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 If you had bothered to read my earlier posts at all, you would have seen that I addressed far more than just MR Circulation, modeler's age, and the NMRA membership. [/quote] CNJ, you were upset that I suggested your "dozen points of darkness" reasons for predicting the end of the hobby were focused primarily on aging of MR readers and NMRA members and declining magazine circulation. [quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 in June of 2005 As I suggested, I had more than ten, perhaps a dozen in total, all of which lean the same way. To me, at least, a preponderance of such numerical and observational evidence out weighs the purely speculative counters that were offered. [/quote] While I was never able to find the full dozen points of darkness together, I did find this list of your "seven deadly signs of impending hobby disaster" from June of 2005. OK, let's look at your sad seven ... [quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 in June of 2005 A most interesting associated figure involves readership age as derived from MR's surveys over the years. Between 1944 and 1974 it is maintained within a year or two of 33 years. By 1979 it is reported as 37, at 40 in 1984, 44 in 1989 and 47 in 1993. Then, after four decades of publishing such figures, the magazine stops printing them for good 1. Extrapolation of MR's decades of reader surveys gives an average age for today's model railroader as 55 years...drastically older (by 20 years) than was the case between 1950 and 1980. [/quote] I disagree that this represents doom for the hobby on two points. First, your analysis is flawed. This is not a scientific survey, instead it is voluntary. Retired readers probably have more time to take surveys than working family men (and women), skewing the results older for all dates. And there is absolutely no evidence that the age of MR readers would continue to advance ... you are extrapolating more than a decades worth of data. Kind of shaky. Second, MR's readership may or may not represent a cross-section of the hobby. The best you can say is that MR's readers who took the survey seemed to be getting older up to 1993. How much older (or younger!) the readership has become from there is speculation. [quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 in June of 2005 2. Across the board, model railroading magazine circulation is down dramatically in the last 10 years. The two largest publishers have lost a total of 65,000 readers in the past decade. While some try to claim this is the result of more and more individuals using on-line sources instead of hard copy, it's been recently cited that the majority of hobbyist over 55-60 years of age aren't even computer literate, so that excuse is pretty much out the door. [/quote] I disagree on three points. First, there is no hard evidence that total circulation of printed railroad-related magazines is down. There are dozens or hundreds of Historical Societies SIGs, and specialty organizations that together have circulations in the tens of thousands. Taken together, there may be more printed material today than at any point in the hobby ... certainly much more than in the golden age of the 50s and 60s. MR's and RMC's circulation figures do not tell the whole story. Second, the decline of print media is seen in every endeavor with the growth of the Internet. Circulations are down for newspapers all over the world. Does this mean that news is about to disappear? Or that people are getting their information from other sources? You continue to discount the importance of the Internet in the decline of printed publications. If I understand your logic, "only old people are modelers, and old people don't use the Internet, ergo, the Internet cannot be contribute to the decline in magazine readership". Circular logic, at best. Third and most important, especially in this age of dozens of magazine titles and the broad reach fo the Internet, there is no indication that the circulation of MR and RMC reflects the number of model railroaders. [quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 in June of 2005 3. About 3 years ago Kalmbach and a group of the leading manufacturers started the World's Greatest Hobby campaign, a million dollar effort to promote the hobby. After 60+ years of model railroading being very popular, the only explanation for this is a realization that their market is steadily going down the drain. [/quote] Wow. I guess Honda's big auto advertising campaign means that the auto industry is going down the tubes. Quick, call the Wall Street Journal! More advertising and promotion reflects a healthy industry that wants to expand and compete, not a failing industry that is retrenching. By all accounts the WGH shows are drawing large crowds -- a good sign for the hobby. [quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 in June of 2005 4. The great majority of today's model railroaders came from the generation that played with Lionel/Flyer and grew up seeing real trains as an everyday aspect of life. Both of these situations have all but vanished from our world. Very few young people are in the hobby today, whereas in the 1950's 1 in 5 hobbyists was a teenager. [/quote] In the 1950s, the hobby was really only 20 years old and "toy trains" were still largely viewed by the general public as a children's pastime. 50- and 60-year-olds weren't into the hobby then because it didn't exist when they were younger. In my opinion, the incredible success of Thomas trains has seeded a new generation of future model railroaders. If one considers the Thomas TV show as exposure for model railroading, the average child in the US has seen much more model railroad-themed entertainment than did the baby boomer generation. And the wooden Brio-type trains (Thomas and otherwise) represent a much lower cost entry into the hobby than did a Lionel set. Good news for the future. [quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 in June of 2005 5. While limited production runs of locomotives, etc., can be attributed to modern business practices, they can also be taken as a reaction to a dramatically decreased demand. Whereas companies like Athearn formerly made runs in the tens of thousands of units, today we see only a few thousand items run at a time. [/quote] Just the opposite is true. There are hundreds more different models, liveries, phases, detailing options etc. available today than ever in the past. Heck, there have been 35 years of new prototype equipment that are being reproduced in models that never even existed in the 70s. Limited runs are an indicator of variety and diversity and thus the health of the hobby. Here's just one set of data points on this diversity. In December of 1979, Walthers' ads indicated that they carried 25,000 different items in all scales. In his 2004 book "Playing with Trains", Sam Posey reported that Walthers listed over 80,000 items in HO scale alone. This alone is 5 or 6 times the number of different SKUs stocked in a Wal-Mart or similar store and is one reason local hobby shops are struggling ... it's just not possible to stock the variety of offerings available today in a bricks and mortar store. In fact, entirely new scales and gauges have come into broad use since the 70s (G scale, for example). Diversity is good news and represents expansion of the hobby. [quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 in June of 2005 6. Most people are too busy in their lives today to step back and have any real hobbies. Most spend "spare" time doing work brought home from the office in a cut-throat effort to get ahead and have even less spare time. [/quote] The US government disagrees somewhat with your analysis. A recent leisure time survey reports that the average American spends 5.68 hours out of 24 on leisure pursuits, even after accounting for work done at home. [url]http://www.bls.gov/news.release/atus.t01.htm[/url] The number of hours spent in leisure time activity was lowest for 35-44 year olds (4.2 hours per day) and the highest for those over 65 (7.3 hours per day) [url]http://www.bls.gov/news.release/atus.nr0.htm[/url] Now while it may be true that we have slightly fewer hours than in years past ... there's still plenty of time for modeling. The US government survey notes that of the average 5.68 hours of leisure, 2.64 are spent watching television. If we each turned off the tube a couple of nights a week, we'd have plenty of time for modeling. [quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 in June of 2005 7. Finally, there is the matter of prices. While you'll see arguments to the contrary, model railroading was decidely more affordable to the average person in the past than it is today. Yes, products have improved dramatically but that is simply the expected advancement of technology. The relative price of comparable products has risen to an amazing degree over the past decade or so, outstripping price increases over the total of the previously 30 years. [/quote] Almost totally incorrect, as I noted in the earlier post. And with this post, I'll have to excuse myself from this conversation for while as I get back to what I was supposed to be doing. But I'll check back in tomorrow to see how you all are doing. Jon
Tags (Optional)
Tags are keywords that get attached to your post. They are used to categorize your submission and make it easier to search for. To add tags to your post type a tag into the box below and click the "Add Tag" button.
Add Tag

Update Reply

Subscriber & Member Login

Login, or register today to interact in our online community, comment on articles, receive our newsletter, manage your account online and more!

Model Railroader Newsletter See all

Sign up for our FREE e-newsletter and get model railroad news in your inbox!

Subscriber & Member Login

Edit post

Post Body

Tags (Optional)

Subscriber & Member Login

Users Online

Search the Community