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Will brass prices return to 1997 levels? Opinions? Locked

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  • Member since
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  • From: Huron, SD
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Posted by Bayfield Transfer Railway on Sunday, June 7, 2020 4:10 PM

I have one brass engine, an Ajin NW-5 with a very nice drive.

If somebody made one in plastic I'd sell the brass one like a shot.

I want a model that looks good and runs well, and I don't care if it's made of brass, zamac, plastic, or earwax.

 

Disclaimer:  This post may contain humor, sarcasm, and/or flatulence.

Michael Mornard

Bringing the North Woods to South Dakota!

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Posted by Howard Zane on Sunday, June 7, 2020 4:18 PM

ATLANTIC CENTRAL
 
 

And to offer a few thoughts here. 

Everything you just said is likely true and valid. 

But you are talking about a group of modelers/consumers that are a special sub group in this hobby.

I don't "pay" anyone to work on or paint my model trains, I don't know very many modelers who do. I know, I run in different circles than you.

So if I bought that vintage WESTERN MARYAND Pacific or B&O B18 that I want, I would tune it up, remotor it if necessary and paint it myself.

Our "OP" Howard is a unique person in this hobby, he is a craftsman of the highest order and a collector and admirer of brass.

The fact that there is so much unpainted, never/hardly ran, very old (20 to 50 years) brass on the market suggests that a fair percentage is/was bought by collectors, not by active modelers using it on layouts.

I'm not in that hobby........

Sheldon

 

ATLANTIC CENTRAL
 
PRR8259

To address the OP question posed by Howard Zane:

I've been brass shopping hard and comparing prices of what is actually available to be purchased.

Right now, it appears that one could answer "it depends".

There are a lot of lesser valued or lesser priced brass models available for sale in the marketplace.  However, they may require regearing, remotoring and a paint job, plus many folks would want DCC.  Till all that work is completed nowadays, that would easily add $500 or more to the price of any of them, and I can see that some buyers won't want to buy a $195 or $250 engine to then put $500 more into it.  So that may be why some of them don't sell or rather are lingering in online website inventories.

At the other end of the spectrum there are many $1000 and up models that seem to be actually in very short supply.  Some of them sell literally as soon as they get listed, within hours.  People over on other forums are actually making statements like there is nothing available that they want to buy.  That may reflect the realization that the lesser priced models may require "too much work" or "too much investment" to upgrade to what is expected today.

So if the model falls into the "later" or "better" group and is heavily detailed, well, yes it seems they are increasing in value.  This still seems to include some of the more scarce Crown models.  

Other Crown models that are perceived as "very common" have dropped in value recently.

John

 

 

 

And to offer a few thoughts here. 

Everything you just said is likely true and valid. 

But you are talking about a group of modelers/consumers that are a special sub group in this hobby.

I don't "pay" anyone to work on or paint my model trains, I don't know very many modelers who do. I know, I run in different circles than you.

So if I bought that vintage WESTERN MARYAND Pacific or B&O B18 that I want, I would tune it up, remotor it if necessary and paint it myself.

Our "OP" Howard is a unique person in this hobby, he is a craftsman of the highest order and a collector and admirer of brass.

The fact that there is so much unpainted, never/hardly ran, very old (20 to 50 years) brass on the market suggests that a fair percentage is/was bought by collectors, not by active modelers using it on layouts.

I'm not in that hobby........

Sheldon,

Many thanks for compliments, but I'm more of an accumulator of brass models rather than being a collector.I also play with my brass toys running only brass on my pike. I have found that even the older Japanese brass models can be made to run quite well for several lifetimes and then some...of course with the help of Jan Willard....the finest brass guy I have ever known. I have had *** cats knock brass models to the concrete floor resulting in serious damage like broken detail bent pilots, boilers, cab roofs, tender shells, etc, but always fixable to almost new condition. A plastic/cast model.....usually terminal!! 

When I owned a train store for two years, I ran on my display layout a United PRR K-4 for over 1000 hours with nary a problem other then plating wearing from drivers....not a problem, just had to clean them more often.  Plastic counterparts....30 to 100 hours of constant running would do them in. Granted this was 45 years ago, but the message is loud and clear. Cost efficiency? A new plastic or cast model and all hybrids are now in the $500-$750 range (steam). an older brass model can be bought in the $300 range and then equipped with full DCC, remotored, all lights added with working markers, cab and firebox lights for another $350 and now in the same price range of a new plastic/die cast offering. The main difference is the inherent quality of the hand made brass which to me and countless others are works of art vs. a mass procduced plastic toy in runs of several thousands. I sure do not want to put down plastic/cast steamers as the initial outlay is far less than brass and many just like operations not caring what the loco is made of. Years or whatever down the pike, you will sell your choo choos. Brass models will hold most of their value with some actually appreciating, but quite rare in today's market. If you don't care, your surving family will after you depart.

Check out what Forrest Nace is doing with older brass. He has sold quite a few from exactly what I'm talking about.

Those who know me will vouch that I began wih one brass model in 1962, traded and traded still again. I purchased more models with the then small profits I made and all while I was in the military for for a mess of years. By late 90's my "accumulation" of brass locos had taken over my house. I had two almost complete PFM Crown collections which helped me finance my two kids 12 years of college between them when sold for then a sizeable profit. I could have not done this with plastic/cast models. When I retired in 1986 after selling my business, I became a brass dealer (Piermont Division which I sold to Dan Glasure with my web address as brasstrains.com) During the years from 1986 to 2005, I erked out a rather nice income while having a ball. Age caught up and Dan was half of my age and full of ambition and a willingnesss to learn besides being a great business man with old world ethics rarely seen today in folks his age. enough!!

I guess it boils down to.....purchase what you like and enjoy. That is what the hobby is about.

HZ

Howard Zane
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Posted by PRR8259 on Sunday, June 7, 2020 6:43 PM

Sheldon--

You may have missed a few key points:

I actually have completely disassembled, stripped and painted a brass model.  It was an Overland Models L&HR/CR Alco C-420.  The end result was...not good at all.  Jolute at Diesel Consignment took if off my hands, and I basically swore that I would never do that kind of destruction to another fine brass model again.  Unfortunately, he had difficulty selling it.  It wasn't totally terrible, but it wasn't good either.

I don't pay people to do stuff just because I'm loaded and I have all kinds of money to give away, but because I lack the TIME/skills/patience/tools/equipment to be able to do that kind of work to the standards I feel the models deserve.  I can disassemble, tune drives, and complete some minor repair tasks, but I prefer to stop there, especially as the price point increases.

I like to think that I have more respect for the art of the models themselves to NOT ruin them with the quality of work that I would be able to do and have time to do.

It's not a matter of the "circle" of people that I belong to or aspire to belong to, because I'm emotionally needy.  This is not some great "IN" club or fraternity that won't accept you if you don't own brass.  If durable models could be made from a dead yak, to paraphrase other comments Howard made elsewhere, I'd buy the durable yak-bone model.

However, I've dabbled enough, actually, in plastic, to be underwhelmed by it, and I don't need a massive fleet of anything, I only need a few, a relative handful actually. 

At least the brass models are not made of gold (it wouldn't hold up so well to handling).

I probably would prefer stainless steel more, but it would be very difficult to achieve the same level of details.

John

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  • From: Maryland
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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Sunday, June 7, 2020 7:09 PM

Howard,

I would not disagree about the durability of brass vs other products. And I will not disagree about potential cost effectiveness if you run them that many hours.

And, I too have my share of retail experiance from those days. From 1970 to 1973 I worked at the Depot Hobby Shop in Severna Park and did the repairs there. I helped the owners there build a diorama of John Brown's Raid when they moved their business to Harpers Ferry. 

And from 1974 to 1980 I worked at Glen Burnie Hobby World and managed the train department there.

From 1973 into the mid 80's I was an active member at the Severna Park Model Railroad Club, and have visited your layout several times - thank you for that experiance.

As I have explained before, I likely will not sell my trains, at least not me personally while I am still upright.

I am a freelance/protolance guy, my steam locos are mostly kit bashed and lettered ATLANTIC CENTRAL, except for models of the three prototype roads I model, C&O, B&O and WESTERN MARYLAND.

The two brass locos I have now sport plastic tenders and have been otherwise kitbashed for my needs - I suspect their value has been compromized.........

Understand also that my personal perspective is not from someone entering the hobby, or growing their fleet much at this point. I have most of what I need and want, and I'm not a collector or accumulator.

I only buy models that fit the operational roster desires of the layout.

I have never owned a model of a Big Boy, or an NYC Hudson, or a (fill in a long list of "famous" locos).

My fleet is boring, multiple copies of a short list to create a realistic roster for the ATLANTIC CENTRAL. Example - I have nine Spectrum USRA Heavy Mountains, I can't even think about the work in finding nine brass ones.....let alone the cost. Even at bargin prices it would likely be 4 or 5 times what I have invested, and I bet I don't wear out those nine I have in the rest of my life time........

Big DISCLAIMER - also, I do not use DCC and do not like onboard sound, so as stated earlier, if I did buy a few more pieces of vintage brass like my two United USRA Pacifics, I would tune them and paint them myself. And the current prices of Broadway, MTH, or Athearn steam is of no concern to me, I'm not buying. I'm more likely to buy old brass.........or other new old stock.

I'm not a serial ownership kind of guy. I don't buy things, hold them for a while, then sell them off - profit or loss.

And, I have no more interest in making my hobby also a business.

I have built a number of layouts, and I am about to start what I hope to be the last one. It has a very carefully constructed theme which has not changed for several decades.

Sheldon

   

    

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Sunday, June 7, 2020 7:23 PM

PRR8259

Sheldon--

 

I don't pay people to do stuff just because I'm loaded and I have all kinds of money to give away, but because I lack the TIME/skills/patience/tools/equipment to be able to do that kind of work to the standards I feel the models deserve.  I can disassemble, tune drives, and complete some minor repair tasks, but I prefer to stop there, especially as the price point increases.

I like to think that I have more respect for the art of the models themselves to NOT ruin them with the quality of work that I would be able to do and have time to do.

 

John

 

Well John, I do have the TIME (mostly, and expect to have more soon)/skills/patience/tools/equipment to paint and decal my own models.

And to repair or modifiy them as needed.

I'm not debating the quality of brass, I am saying it does not represent a good VALUE for ME in most cases.

A big part of my interest in model trains is operation and freelance modeling.

I would not be happy with a one each collection of well detailed prototype models from various roads. 

My goals include operating 30 staged trains on a 1500 sq ft layout. I NEED 140 powered units for that goal.

I have NO INTEREST in buying and selling trains as a second hobby. I have trains I built at age 13 in 1970. I have nearly every train I ever bought from that age to now.

I respect the craftsmanship of brass, I just don't need to own any of it just for that reason. 

I see the model train hobby, and the layout, from a big picture perspective. The layout is the whole, the locos, cars, scenery, are just the parts. They are not the focus.

Sheldon

    

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    March 2016
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Posted by PRR8259 on Sunday, June 7, 2020 10:53 PM

Well, Howard's original question was related to brass model value (or price) now and potential value in the future.  What might happen versus what might not.  I do not think the sky is falling.  Yes, a number of earlier hobbyists or collectors have passed from the active scene, but I think there will be still be some in the future who value the models.  There are certain models I'd like to have, that are becoming very hard to find anywhere at any price.  So somebody is holding on to them.

We just lost a major importer, basically since this thread begain (I believe).  Along with them we may be losing the premier current builder...THE best quality builder, generally speaking, building any brass model trains today.  People over on other forums are concerned about what model(s) if made might allow the builder to continue.  That is the debate elsewhere.

For some of us it is all about the models.

John

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  • From: Maryland
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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Monday, June 8, 2020 5:39 AM

PRR8259

Well, Howard's original question was related to brass model value (or price) now and potential value in the future.  What might happen versus what might not.  I do not think the sky is falling.  Yes, a number of earlier hobbyists or collectors have passed from the active scene, but I think there will be still be some in the future who value the models.  There are certain models I'd like to have, that are becoming very hard to find anywhere at any price.  So somebody is holding on to them.

We just lost a major importer, basically since this thread begain (I believe).  Along with them we may be losing the premier current builder...THE best quality builder, generally speaking, building any brass model trains today.  People over on other forums are concerned about what model(s) if made might allow the builder to continue.  That is the debate elsewhere.

For some of us it is all about the models.

John

 

So John,

Howard asked a question, and got an overwhelming "no" from most of those who responed on this forum, which is a a very diverse and crosssectional group of modelers.

Only a few expressed any desire to even buy brass, new releases or old stuff.

That should tell you something.

The masses in this hobby cannot, or will not spend that kind of money given the other choices in the market place. 

And some are willing to buy some brass BECAUSE the prices are depressed.

Without getting into the whole "who is a real model railroader" thing, you need to accept that those of us who build models, or kit bash models, don't hold brass in the same vaulted position as you do.

And those who are happy with the other RTR options in the market place likewise see no need to spend $1200 or $2500 on something they can buy for $500 or $700, despite any deminishing return "better quality".

I fit in both of the above, more or less, but I'm not even buying any $700 die cast/plastic locos. I might buy a few more $300/$400 locos, plastic, die cast, brass, or whatever. 

If there are two products in any market, and one meets my needs at price X, and a second is "better" by a measure of 20%, but costs 2 times X, few people are going to buy the second product...........

I can't speak to why you have been so "dissatisfied" with all the great models on the market today. In all the years we have discussed model trains I fail to understand your expectations. And if brass makes you happy, go for it.

But supply and demand will drive the market, the handwritting is on the wall.

And I will repeat, I have never considered any model train something I would ever get money back out of. Because I never bought one expecting to ever sell it.

Model train money is like "dinner out" or "vacation" money. Any thought of their future value would destroy the fun I have with them.

Sheldon 

    

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Posted by rrebell on Monday, June 8, 2020 11:25 AM

The only time I have spent over $100 on an engine are for two brass models I own, a Katsumi two cylinder shay and a nakamura (westside import), both for around $200.

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Monday, June 8, 2020 12:10 PM

rrebell

The only time I have spent over $100 on an engine are for two brass models I own, a Katsumi two cylinder shay and a nakamura (westside import), both for around $200.

 

As I have said before, I have a roster of about 140 powered units necessary to protect the schedules on the new ATLANTIC CENTRAL. Set in 1954 the roster is a mix of steam and first generation diesels.

Most of the motive power has been purchased in the last 20 years, and consists mainly of Spectrum/Bachmann (mostly steam), Proto (steam and diesel), BLI (just a few pieces of steam), Genesis (F units), Intermountain (F units) and a few odds and ends, Rivarossi, Mantua, even one IHC, and two heavily kit bashed brass Pacifics. Also some remotored and geared Athearn RDC's.......

No sound, no DCC. The mix is about 50 steam locos and the rest diesel or self propelled passenger.

My dollar cost average price for each powered unit is right around $100 each. 

Most are kit bashed in at least some small way, some in a big way. Some needed a little work to run to my standards, a few needed a lot of work (two pieces from BLI).

The highest price paid for any one powered loco, about $350. The highest price paid for a "set" of diesels that run together as one loco, just under $500 for a four unit lashup.

They all run good and look good.

Sheldon

    

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Posted by tstage on Monday, June 8, 2020 2:34 PM

I think we've beaten this one to death and then some.  Let's play with our brass and plastic...

https://tstage9.wixsite.com/nyc-modeling

Time...It marches on...without ever turning around to see if anyone is even keeping in step.

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