Value Guides are Worthless - Throw them out?

[Anonymous]

I just got back into Lionel Trains and have been buying some to set up and run again. The last time I was into trains was the very early 80's (1980's). The different value guidebooks of the time (I used mostly Greenberg) were the bible of prices. The same guide(s) today (as well as many others) are WAY OFF the mark as far as values are concerned, most(extremely HIGH) on many things. It makes it very hard to know what to pay for things as well as folks that are selling refer to the prices in the books making it hard to buy at a reasonable price. - is this due to Ebay? Why don't the guides adjust for this and be more realistic on the values - what are your thoughts??

[envfocus]

I do think that the internet has made pricing far more fluid, especially compared to the 1980s, so static publications, like Greenberg or other guides, can be far off the mark.  I focus on prewar items, so I cannot comment on anything else, but for me I can only use guides as a starting point.  I research other auction houses (not just ebay) to get a more refined idea of the going price.  Forums like this can also prove quite valuable.  I do rely on Greenberg's Guide for history, illustrations, and rarity, but the amazing availability of previously "rare" items created by the internet has given rise for a more dynamic/active system of pricing than what can be published. 

[seacoast]

The guides are guides and are helpful to an extent. If you visit a local train show as I have found ( you have too) out the guides are usually way off (to high priced) as you have dealers trying to unload their inventories.

 I would agree to an extent that Ebay makes pricing more fluid as the other poster described. When bidding starts at .99 cents and the seller doesnt have a clue to its condition or doesnt have a clue about trains. The guides should account for the internet and adjust accordingly.

[jwse30]

Very valid points thus far. I'd like to add my opinions on this topic.

Newer product is coming out by the shipload. With every new product that comes out, someone who  may want to buy an older product might choose to spend their money on a new item. I'm picturing a N&W J locomotive here. How many times has this engine been released since the 646? Each time it's released, I'm sure that all the prior releases take a price hit. I'd guess that it would be incredibly difficult to guess how much that hit would be for a given year, as the new version may not even show up, may get a bad QA reputation, or may be made by an importer that might not affect one previous issue as much as another.

Another idea is that train collecting doesn't seem to be as popular now as in the past. It seems very few people are buying trains with the idea of not running them. Why buy an older mint car for the same money as a new release, when all you're going to do is put it on the rails and make it not mint anymore?

If we're talking about postwar era trains, another reason for the decrease in prices is the fact that the original owners (and the people trying to relive their childhood from that era) are getting old. Eventually the nostalgia factor is going to be nearly gone for postwar. Perhaps MPC era trains will become collectable at that point.

Back to the price guides. I generally have one with me when I go shopping for trains. It may be in my truck's glove box, or if it's a big show, I'll take it with me. If I see an item that I like (both the item and the price), but am unfamiliar with, I'll look it up.

I'll also look up an item if the price is very high to see if I'm looking at a rare variation (notice looking, not buying). I've done this in front of the seller before when the rest of his item were priced within reason (in my mind). The pocket guides don't do a great job describing the variations though. They likely wouldn't be pocket guides if they did though.

Last but not least, when I buy a new guide (usually every other year), I highlight everything I own in it, and double check the last guide that everything I own is highlighted in it, or marked out if I sold it. I use the new one for shopping, and the old one stays in the file cabinet in case of a loss.

So it looks like I've come up with a couple reasons to keep them around. A less serious reason could be so that your great grandchildren can look at the guides and say "He paid this for that old outdated POS! What an idiot!"

Now if they only come out with a condensed version that covered up to the end of the MPC era only! It's only a matter of time before they will need to make the pocket guide in two volumes. Hopefully when they do, you'll be able to buy just the book you want.

J White

[Anonymous]

Guides may not be all that useful today as far as values are concerned, but they certainly are valuable in terms of providing comprehensive listings of what was produced.  And when there is no guide available, there's little or no accurate history of that production.  Try, for example, to learn what and when some K-Line product was produced in the firm's final years, especially when it comes to uncataloged or special-issue items.

[Anonymous]

As with many collectable hobbies I think the prices in the guides are inflated to make the hobby appear more exotic to the novice which sparks more interest which in turn sells more guides. Think of the difference between "those trains in your attic might be worth 5 dollars" and "those trains in your attic may be worth 50,000 dollars"; which do you think will get someone to buy a price guide?               

[brianel027]

Allan makes a good point about the overall production of items and using the price guides as a reference in that direction.

But other than that, I personally have felt for years the price guides are totally worthless as far as values go. The prices listed have always been on the high side, which to some extend has kept the fervor of buying/collecting trains going strong. I'm sure the train companies themselves liked the "concept" that everything you buy today will be worth much more tomorrow. Dealers have certainly milked that cencept to the extreme and I could give plenty of examples in that area.

People either never knew how to even read the prices guides, or deliberately ignored important information and percentages concerning value and condition in order to ask for the higest possible price. A train set in a Pepsi soda flat is hardly mint condition, though I have seen dealers say it is. And I think it's a hoot when eBay sellers call an item "Rare" when there are 6 more of the same item for sale - and ususally in better condition - at the very same time. It's not even "rare" when that happens, because I see it happening a lot. "Rare" is another one of thoese over used terms and I don't even think the pople saying it know what it really means. Though they're hoping to hook in a sucker for a sale.

The price guides historically benefited the seller more than the buyer. And now things have changed. The internet has had a lot to do with that. The price guides can say something is worth $100, but if the last several months of auctions show it attaining less than half of that value, I'd say the item is really worth half of what the book says. Which is typically what happens today.

And just because one person is will to pay $100 for one item, doesn't necessarily mean the item is worth that overall. It means there is one person who really wants that item and will pay $100 for it. If everyone else only is paying half that for the item, then that's what it's generally worth. Too often the price guides arrived at their printed values by averaging out the higest prices paid, and not the average price paid.

[Anonymous]

Some excellent and very appreciated replies! I have gone over to several peoples in my mtro are (Atlanta) to look at some train things they had for sale - they all had a uide book sitting in view - I ask them what they want for it all - they tell me they have no idea - I make an offer and they act insulted (in my mind its a starting point) - they will sometimes counter offer  but usually not - I then make another offer - then I gt the comments that I'm not even close to the value in the book - I give an explanation of the prices an also tell them that the books don't buy trains - I have yet to buy any of these because they think I low ball them - I did follow up with one fellow who told me he sold hal on Ebay and the rest to a dealer - he got less then what my final offer was.

 

There is one comapny that makes a guide book that runs on your computer - they say it is very up to date and accurate as far as prices go - does anyone know if it's any better? It would be nice if someone had a program that would run on a Palm Pilot - that would be great for shows.

Someone above mentioned that the trains aren't being bought to just sit on a shelf and not be run and that trains were being bought to run so why pay the premium for a new old one to sit on the shelf - I have always thought this - unless the price was excellent!

[jimhaleyscomet]

Price guides are good for two things. 

1.  They give you an estimate of the value of your pieces for insurance.  If you feel you must replace items lost then you can be sure to find the item somewhere by paying the book value.

2.  They help you from WAY overpaying for something.  They do not prevent you from overpaying.  They just help you to find the ballbark.

The best price estimates come from combining a price guide with watching the prices of items on ebay.  Just remember, ebay auctions can go much higher than book when two people are willing to pay more for something because they deem it special.  Actually I am quite amazed at how much stuff goes on ebay for very close or even over book prices.  


Jim H

[brianel027]

Keep this in mind whenever buying trains from novices. Sure maybe they have consulted a price guide. Chances are though, they ignored ALL information except for the highest price listed (usually mint or new) for their items. I've had this happen, where someone is asking top dollar and yet hasn't run the train in decades, so they have no idea if it even works. Something that doesn't work is rated as JUNK which makes it worth a fraction of full value.

The other thing novices (and even train guys) never consider as far as book values, though an explanation of this exists in every price guide I have ever looked at:

If you are selling a number of trains or a collection you CANNOT expect to get full book price for each piece from one buyer. They tell you that you should expect a portion of that full value - usually up to 50% less from a single buyer taking multiple trains.

If a seller decides he or she wants FULL book value, then let them go to the trouble to advertise the pieces, then answer multiple emails and phone calls, having strangers coming over to their house during their shower or dinner time or when the kids are crying and won't go to bed. Then, MAYBE they MIGHT do better in price.

BUT it always goes back to the condition (both operational and visual) of the trains for sale. Modern trains need their boxes to attain book value prices. Postwar and older, if the boxes are there and in good shape, add another 20-25% or more to the expected price (depending on how unusual the packaging is: ie: the postwar packaging for something like a pack of ice cubes or cattle/horse are not common and do help to bring up the values of those items for the right buyer.).

One final thought: one time the topic of Lionel trains makes the papers or news is when a high price is attained at an auction. I remember hearing on the news some sealed mint condition depression era Mickey Mouse train sets brought thousands of dollars for each one at an auction.... $28K each if my memory serves me right.

Normal folks who have no idea Lionel is still in business, have no idea what MTH or K-Line is, or didn't know Neil Young is a minority owner of Lionel see these news items and assume the beat up Lionel trains in their barn, attic or basement are also worth thousands of dollars. They hear the same above news item, think about the bills due and the impending layoff, and then realize they too have some old Lionel's down in the basement and the dollar signs reflect in their eyes. In some cases, they'd be better off selling fresh vegetables with milk and cookies by the roadside.

[jimhaleyscomet]

Oh and one other price guide.

For modern era stuff look at the adds in CTT.

Jim H

[seacoast]

Again I agree with the fact that Ebay listings and biddings especially when a bidding war gets into progress. I have seen products that I thought were high priced a trian show go for double that on Ebay. I have also seen Ebay items go for much more than retailers listed in the magaizes. You have to figure that dealers or auction houses will discount the rates listed by 50-75% or more.. I do agree for insurance purposes they do serve a purpose.

[gvdobler]

I think Ebay is the new price guide.  Most people have an inflated value in their head as to what things are worth.  Things are only worth what people will pay for them, and more people will see your item on the internet than anyplace else you could possibly try to sell something.  If you think something is worth $500 and you only get $200 for it, then that's all it was worth.  I too have seen people pay way over what a store is selling a current item for.  Go figure. 

The internet and specifically Ebay has changed many markets.  We used to own an antique store and that business has been changed as well.  Mainly what it has done is decrease the perceived rarity of many things.  Items than were considered to be very rare now will come up once a week on Ebay, thereby decreasing the value.

 

 

[Anonymous]

I've noticed several things about the relationship between "book" prices and those in the real world (ie. eBay).  One caveat:  My observations are based mostly on prewar Lionel items.

Items that truly are rare (not just  touted as "RARE!!!" by the seller) may sell for many times what the books say it's worth.  One particular instance that comes to mind is a factory repainted dark green 408E that went for ~$16,000 on eBay about six months ago. ...Then again, that particular piece may be the best surviving example of it's kind left in the world too?

Relatively common, run of the mill items in average condition go for anywhere from a third of book to just over book value. 

This makes no sense at all, but absolute junk, in wretched condition and only good for parts or restoration, often goes for as much as typical run of the mill items. 

And the 'rule' that really gets on my nerves is that really nice pieces in really good condition occasionally go really cheap.  ...But only when I didn't have the cash on hand to bid on it!  :~)

[Jumijo]

I think Ebay is the new price guide.  Most people have an inflated value in their head as to what things are worth.  Things are only worth what people will pay for them, and more people will see your item on the internet than anyplace else you could possibly try to sell something. . .

I agree 100%!!

[Warburton]

I used to use price guides when I went to train shows and was rewarded for it by overpaying on virtually everything I bought. The guides are good for information on what was manufactured and variations, etc., but not prices.

I would suggest that anyone who is in the market for 3-rail trains (or Flyer) join the LCCA (Lionel Collectors Club of America). As a member, you can access their on-line trading platform and watch current prices being asked by (mostly) ordinary collectors, not dealers. And they list every offered item from lowest to highest asking price. This forum changes all the time as people buy and sell their stuff and so is much more up-to-date on realistic pricing. Postwar, Modern, all manufacturers are represented. Your annual dues will be, in effect, repayed to you the first time you buy something and save money, believe me! Go to www.lionelcollectors.org for info.

And I am a member of LCCA but not an officer,etc. I speak only from experience.

[phillyreading]

I use price guides when I go to a train show so I don't overpay for an item, or to check an item on ebay, but as for prices most are overated in dollar value, also the seller if he has a price guide does himself more harm than good as he overinflates the price not knowing how to use the price guide as to new or excellent conditions. 

 The other thing about price guides NOT all the pieces made by a certain company will be in there.  Greenberg's guide falls into this catagorie very often, example Lionel 249E has only two tender possibilities listed when there can be up to six different tenders that were sold with this engine due to uncataloged sets being made in the late 1930's.

That is why I don't take the price guide values or variations as being wrote in stone.

Lee F.