Changes in the publishing industry

[nblum]

I'd be interested in comments, and perhaps the reaction of the Kalmbach people in particular.

The publishing end of our hobby/industry seems to be in a recession of sorts, as discussed on another forum:

CTT average circulation in 2005 of 58,203 was down 3.2% from 2004, down 14% over five years, and down 23.3% from the peak year of 1995 (75,909).

OGR average total circulation of 32,230 was down 2.9% from 2004, and down 9.2% over 5 years (peak circulation of 35,489 in 2001).

Pages per issue are down commensurately.

Here are the figures for circulation and total page numbers in recent years
for the January issue of Model Railroader, the largest and most widely read model railroading magazine in the world:

1998 204 pages
2000 212 pages 202,697 average annual monthly circulation
2001 180 pages 187,957
2002 172 pages 181,363
2003 164 pages 179,456
2004 194 pages 178,674
2005 148 pages 175,537
2006 140 pages 168,458

Pages are down 34% and circulation by 17% from 2000.

Thus the change isn't restricted to the O gauge three rail world, not in the least. Are similar things happening in Large Scale (Garden RR)?

Is the size of the industry contracting? Are advertising revenues and editorial content migrating to the internet/web? Is this the nationwide recession at work? Or all of the above?

[daan]

I am NOT worried about the hobby disappearing. In the first place, everything is less then in 1995, when Europe and the USA where having a great time and earning money like water. It's logical that those days where best for hobbies, since there was plenty of money for new items. In the mean time we had a few years of decline, and that's always first seen in hobby spendings.
If I count the English magazines in our newspapershop, they are more then 5 different magazines, only focused on Great brittain railroading. If you see great brittain on a globe and compare it to the USA, then you understand why I'm not fearing for the end of CTT. There will always be a lot of die-hard hobbyists willing to buy the magazine.

The only thing which I think will shrink, is the huge amount of new items released by an even bigger amount of different manufacturers. Those are the ones seeing their sells drop, but mostly due to an overfeeding of the market.

Besides all this, I'm enjoying my hobby, and I know a lot of others do that too, and as long as we all enjoy our trains, the magazine will have a feeding ground to excist.
Just my 2 pence.

[IRONROOSTER]

No one has published any hard data on the size or demographics of the hobby in over 10 years - at least not that I have seen.

Some possible reasons for magazine circulation decline that have been advanced are:

1. There aren't enough people entering the hobby and as the oldtimers die off there are fewer hobbyists.

2. The hobby has gotten too expensive and priced people out. Or magazines have gotten too expensive and people have dropped one or more.

3. A lot of hobbyists get their info from the Internet and thus have dropped magazines.

4. There are so many magazines that they are taking each others customers.

I am sure there is some truth to all of these, but how much each one contributes is unknown. There may also be other factors in play due to the rise in video games and other forms of entertainment. Also, while the surge in house prices has been a boon for some, it has really hurt the folks trying to get their first house.

I think the hobby will survive, but the future is a little murky.

Enjoy
Paul

[wrmcclellan]

Don't forget the bottom started to fall out on our economy in 2000-2001. Massive layoffs, etc. Only now is it staring to show some signs of stabilizing (and I am unsure how strong that stabilization is). Job creation is improving, but the news only rarely reports that the majority of jobs being created are low paying service industry jobs. These are not jobs that one may easily raise a family on.

No surprise that the scale and toy train industry suffered.

There may be a resurgance in the train hobbies as the boomers start to retire. Model RRing, toy train hobby, etc., is something familiar to us.

[Anonymous]

Traditionally, a weak economy was always good for the hobby publishing industry because people would turn their attention to readying about and studying their favorite pastime rather than investing in the more costly objects associated with that pastime.

But I don't think that holds true any longer. Also, I don't think we've seen anything even approaching a weak economy in the past decade or so. Look at home sales--expensive homes--for example. Or sales of big and costly automobiles. Or even sales of high-end toy trains and toy trains in general. Even the escalating price of gas hasn't deterred American drivers from continuing their wasteful ways. None of those examples provide indication of a weakened economy, despite the loss of many thousands of jobs in recent years.

This leads me to believe that other factors are at work in accounting for decreased magazine circulation figures. One thing I've noticed in visiting a number of different hobby forums over the years that they have been available is that a lot of folks are just plain cheap. They think nothing of paying $1,000 or more for a new locomotive, but raise holy H*** when it comes to paying a couple of bucks more to cover a subscription increase for a magazine. And they really go bonkers if an on-line forum even suggests that it might consider charging a few bucks a year for participation. In short: A good many people in our society today want everything for nothing, and the younger the audience is, the greater their expectations in that regard.

And, of course, we have to consider the hard fact that the number of people involved in this hobby has probably already peaked. After all, the core of the hobby has long been those in the 50+ age group, and in recent years I imagine there has been something of an additional bubble caused by an even older demographic--folks in my age group who are just a bit ahead of the "baby boom" generation; who remember railroading (prototype and model) in its glory days; and who really poured a lot of money into the toy train hobby when it was reborn back in the early 90s. By now, a full decade later, a good many of us have, I imagine, had most of our wants and needs fulfilled. And even though our level of interest in the hobby remains high, we're just not spending anywhere near as much on the material goods of the hobby. I know that's true for me. I'm older than the traditional demographic for the hobby; still actively employed in a reasonably decent-paying job; but spending far less on trains and train-related items (including reading material) than I did as recently as five or more years ago. Most of us in this age group do, I believe, reach a point where we finally say to ourselves "enough is enough." Furthermore, one's whole perspective tends to change a good bit as one faces the sunset years of life, and tangible objects become a far less important part of the overall equation.

That, I think, is why publishers need to re-examine what they are doing, how they do it, and what they might want to do to assure their future growth and prosperity. They probably need to try some new and bold initiatives, and they need to take a hard look at the types of content they provide and pay increased attention to what readers themselves really want and need. I'm not convinced that anyone is doing a particularly good job at that at the present time because I'm not convinced that they truly understand who or what their audience--real and potential--is..

It's easy to just sit back and blame the Internet or some other external influences for a decline in circulation or interest in the hobby in general, but I see that as a head-in-the-sand approach. Better, in my opinion, to do a bit of soul-searching to plan for the future rather than rely so heavily on what worked in the past. The hobby is NOT going to fade away or die. Those who serve it just need to find better ways to provide needed services in a changed and evolving marketplace.

[Big_Boy_4005]

A lot of interesting points have been raised in this conversation already, and I agree that all are contributing factors. As one who subscribes to 3 of the 5 publications represented by this website, I have some observations of my own.

With 55 years worth of MR and every issue of CTT in my shelf, it is easy to go back in time to note the changes in the magazine content. One change has become very obvious in the last 10 years, increasing advertising space, and decreasing editorial content. I understand that publishing is a business with two revenue streams, cirulation cover price, and advertising. This is a real dilema, because if the cover price gets too high, circulation is effected, but also if the advertising overshadows the articles, audience could be lost.

A magazine is not published to please the advertisers, it is published for the readers, and according to Neil's numbers, the readers are going away. WHY????

Another observation is that, over the years as management has changed, so has the focus on the qualifications of the staff. Recent job postings have all been calling for journalism majors. While quality writing is important, hobby knowledge and passion, should be the real qualifications, as it is that insight that translates to the value for the readers. Grammar and style can be polished, but love of the subject comes from the heart. A. C. Kalmbach wasn't a writer by trade, he was a printer, but more than that, he was a man who loved trains!!!!

[nblum]

When you look at total pages, as an index of advertising
revenues, the results are even more dramatic. Here are the CTT
data:

January issues of CTT:

2000 212 pages 73,591 paid circulation monthly for 1999

2001 172 pages 68,544 " " " " 2000

2002 154 pages 68,020

2003 148 pages 65,994

2004 156 pages 64,091

2005 138 pages 60,130

2006 132 pages 57,203

Pages down 38%, circulation down 22% since 2000.

[Bob Keller]

If someone had the answers, nobody's circulation would be declining.

The aging hobby base and uncertain number of new entrants was the reason that Kalmbach first proposed the World's Greatest Hobby program - to attract new people - familees, retirees, middle age empty nesters, etc. into the fold. I was a bit disappointed that the only O gauge manufacturer to embrace it was the newest entrant to the field - Atlas O. So the issue goes beyond magazine circulation.

Our surveys show our readers are as happy as ever with our contents. This is based on several paper and internet surveys we do annually, as well as reader phone calls, e-mails, letters, and face-to-face chats at York, etc. not just wishful thinking.

Our subscriber renewal rates are above average for the industry (publishing, not model railroad publishing).

I don't believe that the internet is a factor (other than maybe eBay) in reader loss with either CTT or OGR. Active forum participants are a pretty small number for either publication's reader base. I don't believe (generally) that the economy is a factor.

I'm not sure what Big Boy means about staff changes. Neil has been editor for 9 years, I've been with the magazine 10 years, Roger has been with the magazine twice, totalling something like 16 years. Kent, our most recent addition, is a lifelong hobbyist, former CTT columnist, and was formerly the railroad books acquisition editor for Kalmbach. So as far as hobby knowledge, I think we're pretty well fixed.

If I had to take a guess (and that's what it is) a lot of guys in the hobby have simply bought all the trains they need. I'm in the same category - you build the layout and realize you basically run 6 locomotives and 100 cars, so why do you need 50 locomotives and 300 cars? You're happy with what you have, and you are less aggressive in seeking out new things or information unless you have a speific question or quest in mind.

If guys aren't buying, businesses aren't running advertising.

Many moons back I subscribed to several Mac computer magazines. Since I'm not a guy who buys a new computer every year, after a year or so the things they were talking about (3D gaming, doing extensive graphic work, etc etc etc) was beyond my interest, and my computer couldn't handle the software anyway. And I let them lapse. Earlier this year, I bought a new Mac and I'm getting two of the Mac mags [Mac Addict and Mac Home] because we're back in sync. It wouldn't surprise me that if in a year or so the same cycle repeats.

So I'm not sure anything is "broken." This may simply be the nature of model railroading.

Oh, these opinions are mine, not the distillation of any industry-wide think tank or anything.

[nblum]

Thanks Bob, that makes a lot of sense. Many industries are "cyclical" and model railroading may be one of those. When those now in their 20s and 30s seek hobbies later in middle life, the industry may pick up again.

[cwhtrains]

Well the one thing people are buy is track. Seems that Lionel's Fast track layouts are being expanded by many of the people who have bought starter sets the last two years. At our local store every weekend hundreds of pieces add on track and switches are purchased. In quirying the buyers, I always ask how big are you making your layout? The average response was just a 4 x 8, then the next week or so they are back and they are adding another section, maybe 8 x 12 or two 4 x8's. But what you always see is a smile on their face - they are having fun - something that all in this hobby should have some more of.

[nblum]

That's excellent news Clayton. Probably will be buying some more FasTrack myself this winter. ;)

[Buckeye Riveter]

QUOTE: Originally posted by cwhtrains

But what you always see is a smile on their face - they are having fun - something that all in this hobby should have some more of.

[#ditto]

And I am having the time of my life with my trains. I have met some real neat people from Indiana, Ohio, NY and NC. [:D]

[Blueberryhill RR]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Buckeye Riveter

QUOTE: Originally posted by cwhtrains

But what you always see is a smile on their face - they are having fun - something that all in this hobby should have some more of.

[#ditto]

And I am having the time of my life with my trains. I have met some real neat people from Indiana, Ohio, NY and NC. [:D]

[#ditto]For sure.

[Warburton]

This has been a good discussion, and I agree with much of what's been said. I would add that internet buying HAS changed advertising in the hobby mags -- just look at the current ads. Many now direct the reader to check their website for up-to-date inventory, special sales, etc. To do that, they don't need to buy the ad space in the magazines that listing all their offerings would require. This inevitably cuts down on the size of their ads.

Another thing: I just noticed that Train Express (check their website) is now featuring SLOT RACING SETS! Could history be repeating itself vis-a-vis trains? It makes a certain amount of sense when you think about it, no?? Maybe we should start "investing" in slot sets...

[ChiefEagles]

I had fishing friends from all over the country. Now I have train friends [some fi***oo] and get to meet some in my travels. If I ever needed anything, they would come to the rescue. I have learned a lot about trains since the hobby had really changed since I left in 85. Learned all from sharing of these folks and the new toy trains magazines.

Here is a guy [a Texan] that I met several years ago by the internet. We visit and fi***ogether. We "adopted" each other as brothers. I always referred to his daughters as my nieces and the Youngest as my Favorite. He has a new Grandson [the Youngest's]. This is a special Greatnephew to me. For Chritmas I sent him a Thomas the Tank Train set. Most have seen these pictures. Well, he is hooked along with Granddad [who is talking about building a small layout and Mom too. she wants it at her house, that ='s two].
Been sending Granddad some links to CTT forum. Bet he ends up subscribing. That is how this hobby will survive. BTW: Granddad does not do anything in a small way. [;)]

[cheapclassics]

To all,

I think all of the above make some good points. I concur with Allen in that I have all the engines and rolling stock I could possibly have space to run. If I can get a particular piece at a very good price, such as a 520 searchlight car, I might buy it. On the O-27 side, I just get Alaska RR items or maybe some Santa Fe 2400 series passenger cars. However, if MTH comes out with some new numbers for the 330 series passenger cars or a standard gauge diesel switcher, I would be all over that. The same applies if Lionel starts making "Scout" cars again. Another factor is income. I took a 40% hit when the factory closed. The wife is working parttime now and that helps, but there have been some lifestyle adjustments. I have a semi-nice standard gauge layout in the attic that has about as much scenery and buildings as I can fit on it, and the O-gauge layout will have to wait downstairs until the last offspring leaves the house in six or seven years. Until then, all the advertising in the world is not going to get many dollars from me. I enjoy reading the articles and the ads, and I take great pleasure in sharing events on this forum. Maybe one of these days some unknown relative will leave me a pile of money and I can build that "Carail" display I have dreamed about :-)

Keep on training,

Mike C. from Indiana

[Jumijo]

I think another factor to consider is that hobbies as have been traditionally described or thought of, are changing. Video games, musical electronics, computers, the internet, are all replacing things we used to spend our spare time on, like trains, collections, models. Younger generations don't build models any more. Plastic model companies have seen a dramatic decline in sales, yet die-cast companies that offer models all built up right out of the box are thriving. Part of this has to do with instant gratification. No one wants to take the time to learn to assemble, paint, decal, etc. They want it all now. In that respect, a layout is nothing more than a huge model. Scenery has to be built, track laid, etc. Too much like work to today's generation that wants to pull it out of a box and make it work at once.

As time moves on and new things are invented, societie's interests in the old stuff wanes. It's reality. But model trains as a hobby will never disappear. The population of people who enjoy this hobby may continue to shrink for a while, but eventually, it will level off.

I'm not saying the future is a bleak one for our hobby either. To be honest, I think it's a great time to be involved with toy trains. Excellent publications such as CTT, great selection of product, incredibly usefull resources such as this forum all add up to a wonderful experience. This is a great time to be in this hobby. It really is.

Jim

[cnw1995]

Without stretching the subject line too much, I want to follow on what Jim was mentioning. This hobby seems to refresh itself generationally - esp. in those families where someone - usually the dad - really enjoys model trains and all that goes with it: going to shows, building a layout, reading the magazines - add visiting an online forum. Even if a child doesn't share the interest, if the trains are around, they become something to connect with one another as time goes on. This reminds me I must leave around the CTT and Train magazines a bit more instead of stacking 'em up where the boys can't read them.

I think the size of the boomer generation skews all this 'future of the hobby' talk a bit - a ten year old in 1955 is 60 now, with all that entails. Add or subtract five years and you get a large number of active hobbyists 55-65, some at their peak earning and some in retirement...