When did collector prices peak?

[Hoffman]

Hello All:

I'm just wondering people's opinions on when collector prices kind of peaked?

I'm not referring to how new trains are more expensive all the time, but more for vintage collectible stuff.

I took a break from collecting after my dad died in 2005 and only am just getting back into it now - seems like a lot has changed!

Paul

[Flintlock76]

When did they peak?  I guess it depends on what the item is.

Used (weren't most of them?) postwar Lionels peaked around ten or so years ago and have been dropping in value since that time.  So if you don't mind a bit of wear on that post-war they're a lot more reasonable than they used to be.

On the other hand "Mint-in-the-box-never-run" post-wars are still commanding high prices, at least the last time I looked.  Since I can't afford 'em I don't look all that often. 

A lot of the more common pre-wars with wear on them are getting reasonable as well. 

The best thing to do is when the train shows get started again (and they will) go visit one and walk around checking prices to "Get your eye in" on what you like and what you're willing to pay.  There are some deals to be had!

[BigAl 956]

IMHO prices peaked early at the turn of the Century, 2000. A congregation of factors came into effect.

• The market became saturated with new items and reissues
• The Baby-boomer population began to decline
• The post-war market began to dry up
• Prices had reached their limit the market would bear
• eBay and other internet auction sites began to take hold. Collectors could no longer set prices, the internet market would.

What was trending in a shrinking market began to take hold in the great recession. By the time the recession was coming to a close, collecting and prices had peaked and started to decline. 

While there is still a market for mint and rare items the general everyday runner postwar has begun to seriously constrict. I do not think we'll see the market of the early 2000s ever again.

[dlagrua]

I will absolutely agree with the top two posts and add that the prices in the post war and secondary used market are still spiraling down. At one time post war trains were a great investment but they have run their course. If a hobbyist just wants basic conventional operation as I do, its a great time to get into the hobby.

[Dogdoc1]

Early 2000s is when they peaked in my opinion.

[arkady]

If you adjust for the comparative value of the dollar, I think they peaked in the late Seventies or early Eighties.

[Dave45681]

All the above sound good if the original poster did mean post-war or pre-war Lionel. 

(I know the OP wrote "vintage", that can mean different things to different people ;) )

If one was to consider some MTH trains, I'd say some of the auction high bids I've seen recently woud suggest MTH collector prices are peaking (or maybe not peaked yet, even) right now.

Of course that may be a temporary peak in interest due to the closure announcement from last year.  It could level out after a bit of time.  Time will tell. :)

The specific examples that are most fresh in my mind were 2 subway set items (note these were not from the actual MTH warehouse auctions, so there shoud not be the "it was owned and kept at MTH headquarters" pride of ownership for the bidder with respect to these 2 items, as there could be for MTH Warehouse auction items)

1) A two car add-on set for the R-40 subway set recently went for $910 on eBay.  While this is a Premier set, the add-on sets of 2 cars listed for $200 when offered.  It may have been a less common set seen for sale over the years (I'd been casually looking at train meets), but I don't think they were routinely selling for over $900. ;)

2) A four car R-21 locosound (not Protosound 2.0 with DCS) equipped subway set went for $1300 in another auction I saw (original MSRP $200 when offered).  True this was one of the earlier subway sets (1st one available with Protosounds 2.0), but over the years with so many other subway sets offered, the interest probably went down a bit, and most people valued the Proto2 version of this same set with DCS far more than the locosound version that does not have the DCS command control capabilities, auto-mode for station stops, etc..  And this was a traditional auction house, if my memory serves for where I saw it.  So the buyer actually paid a 15% buyer premium over that, for a total of $1495. 

I'm probably out of left field here, so I apologize if so (OP quite probably did mean post war Lionel).  But seeing these 2 items seems like a good demonstration of how collectability can evolve. 

Even though recently a few bits of news of some small parts of the MTH product lines being successfully sold to other companies, this is probably the surge in interest with the thought "MTH isn't making trains anymore".  (sort of how post war collectors always contrasted post war to more modern trains with the "they aren't making any more" argument for post-war trains)

Who knows if that level of interest in MTH will continue or possibly ramp down a bit in the coming years.  I feel confident stating it's pretty high right now for quite a bit of the MTH product line.  Those were just very extreme examples that caught my attention.